Sinema outraised by Gallego again, further clouding her future

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who shook up the 2024 landscape last year when she became an independent, was outraised by her chief Democratic challenger for the second consecutive quarter — again by a nearly two-to-one margin.

Sinema, who has not said whether or not she will seek a second term next year, raised $1.7 million from April 1 through June 30. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), who launched a bid for her seat in January, brought in $3.1 million in that same period.

Sinema has stockpiled nearly $10.8 million in her bank account — almost three times more than Gallego — but the representative has shown considerable momentum. He outraised her by a similar ratio in the first three months of the year.

The reports, which were due Saturday, add another layer of intrigue to what is potentially the most complicated Senate contest of the cycle. Senate Democrats are not only closely watching how Sinema and Gallego’s campaigns progress, they’re looking for some insight into whether she chooses to run again at all.

Sinema has been quiet about her intentions. Her candidacy would split the field into an unpredictable three-way race. If she siphons away too many voters from the Democratic nominee, she could boost Republicans’ odds to flip the seat.

Sinema’s fundraising total dropped slightly from her first-quarter haul of $2.1 million. Less than $9,000 of her second-quarter number came from contributors who have donated less than $200 — a sign of continued meager grassroots enthusiasm. Gallego, in comparison, brought in $1.7 million from small-dollar contributions last quarter.

Sinema remains reliant on corporate PACs to fill her coffers and notably did not receive any donations from the campaign accounts of her fellow senators. She did nab one contribution from FOX Corporation PAC.

Gallego, on the other hand, did not raise any money from PACs in the past three months, his report showed.

In Arizona, only one major Republican, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, is in the race. He reported raising $608,000 last quarter. But Republicans are watching closely to see if Kari Lake, who lost last year’s contentious race for governor, declares a campaign.

Arizona isn’t the only Senate contest that national Democrats are closely watching. They are also waiting to see if Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) decides to seek reelection in a state that former President Donald Trump won by 39 points.

Manchin reported raising nearly $1.3 million during the second quarter — roughly triple what he brought in during the first three months of the year and a sign that he is keeping his options open for another run. He has said a final decision won’t come before the end of the year.

Without Manchin, Senate Democrats have virtually no chance of keeping his seat, and they are encouraging him to run for reelection. Manchin’s haul surpassed the two Republicans who have launched campaigns for his seat — Gov. Jim Justice and Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.) — and the embattled incumbent has a whopping $10.7 million cash on hand, according to totals shared first with POLITICO.

Across the map, Senate Democrats could find a lot of things to celebrate from their candidates’ campaign finance reports.

The six most endangered Democratic incumbents raised a collective $21.4 million, according to a POLITICO analysis of campaign finance data. The two most vulnerable other than Manchin, Sens. Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio, brought in more than $5 million each and had banked $10.5 million and $8.7 million, respectively.

All of those incumbents — Manchin, Tester, Brown, and Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) — had more than $5.5 million in cash on hand at the end of June. Collectively, they have nearly $50 million already banked.

“Similar to last cycle, our incumbents outraised Republicans and had strong grassroots support in their states. And the same thing is happening this cycle,” said Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), the chair of Senate Democrats’ campaign arm.

He also said he was still hopeful that Manchin would seek reelection: “I talk to him regularly. He's still thinking through what he wants to do, but I'm encouraging him to run for Senate.”

Of the core six Democratic incumbents, Manchin has the most in his bank account, with $10.7 million in his campaign account and $2.2 million in his leadership PAC — money that will go a long way in West Virginia if he chooses to run.

Few top Republican Senate candidates had to file fundraising reports because they launched campaigns after the deadline for the second quarter. That includes Army veteran Sam Brown in Nevada and businessman Tim Sheehy in Montana.

The reports offered other hints on the intentions of the undeclared prospective candidates. In Montana, GOP Rep. Matt Rosendale, who has told congressional colleagues he plans to challenge Tester, raised $442,000. While that total is a paltry number compared to other Senate candidates, it is more than three times what he raised in the first three months of the year.

Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.), who is considering a run against Baldwin, raised only $114,000, which could signal that he is not gearing up for a statewide campaign.

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DeSantis campaign sheds staff amid cash crunch

Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign is shedding staff as it navigates a cash crunch and looks to refocus resources on Iowa.

Fewer than 10 staffers were let go by the Florida governor’s campaign Thursday, according to a person familiar with the internal deliberations and granted anonymity to describe them. Each of the aides was involved in event planning, and some of them may soon wind up at an allied outside group. Never Back Down, the pro-DeSantis super PAC, has received resumes from staffers who’ve been let go, a person familiar with the group said.

The decision to shed the staff comes as the DeSantis campaign has struggled to meet its fundraising expectations. Though the governor raised $20 million in the second quarter of this year, $3 million of that was earmarked for the general election. In addition, only about 15 percent of his donations came from small-dollar donors, a level he will likely have to enhance in order to keep up with former President Donald Trump, who has built a robust small-dollar network over the years. DeSantis’ campaign spent more than $1 million on payroll, payroll taxes, insurance and processing fees in the second quarter with roughly 90 staffers on the books.

Despite his fundraising difficulties, DeSantis remains firmly in second place in the GOP primary behind Trump, and Never Back Down has raised more than $100 million.

“Americans are rallying behind Ron DeSantis and his plan to reverse Joe Biden’s failures and restore sanity to our nation, and his momentum will only continue as voters see more of him in person, especially in Iowa,” said DeSantis spokesperson Andrew Romeo. “Defeating Joe Biden and the $72 million behind him will require a nimble and candidate-driven campaign, and we are building a movement to go the distance.”

DeSantis is expected to campaign heavily in Iowa, where he is preparing to embark on a tour of the state’s 99 counties, an ambitious plan that would require extensive event staff. It is likely that Never Back Down would help stage at least some of those events; last week, the organization sponsored a DeSantis appearance in New Hampshire.

While polls have shown DeSantis trailing in Iowa, his advisers have argued they have an opportunity in the state. They note that this past week Trump attacked the state’s popular Republican governor, Kim Reynolds, for remaining neutral in the race and that Trump skipped a forum in the state hosted by evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats.

“Donald Trump gave us an opening in Iowa this week, and we’re taking it,” Romeo said.

In addition to the event staffers’ departure, two senior DeSantis campaign advisers, Dave Abrams and Tucker Obenshain, have left the campaign to work for a pro-DeSantis nonprofit organization. Abrams had been serving as the senior communications adviser and media director, and Obenshain led the campaign’s external affairs.

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Tim Scott is the longshot candidate raising the most cash — by less than $1 million

GOP candidates hoping to knock off Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis raised a combined $21 million from donors in the second quarter — underscoring just how difficult it is to break out of the pack.

The former president and Florida Governor still have a firm financial lead on the rest of the field. DeSantis’ campaign reported raising more than $20 million, while Trump’s campaign, which had not yet filed Saturday evening, teased that it had raised $35 million.

Leading the rest of the field in fundraising, excluding money from the candidates themselves, were the two South Carolinians. Sen. Tim Scott raised $6.2 million, followed by Nikki Haley at $5.3 million. For Scott, the figure was relatively strong compared to the field but less than he raised in his best quarter of his most recent Senate campaign. The senator also spent more than he raised over the quarter. He still had $21 million cash on hand, largely thanks to his strong history of fundraising as a senator.

The best quarterly fundraising totals beyond Trump and DeSantis came from two longshots who threw in substantial shares of their own funds. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum put $10.2 million into his own campaign while bringing in $1.5 million in donations, while biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy added another $5 million of his own money this quarter while raising $2.3 million from donors.

After that, the cash drop-off was sharp. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie brought in $1.7 million in the second quarter, while former Vice President Mike Pence brought in $1.1 million since launching his campaign in June.

Texas pastor and businessperson Ryan Binkley also added nearly $1.6 million of his own money to his under-the-radar campaign while raising a bit shy of $200,000.

A handful of longshot candidates had yet to crack the $1 million threshold through the end of June. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez brought in $945,000 through the first weeks of his campaign, while former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who has been in the race since April, brought in $583,000.

Larry Elder, who was a strong fundraiser during his bid during the California recall election for governor, brought in just $468,000. Former Rep. Will Hurd raised $274,000, although that was done in a bit over a week as the former Texas representative announced his presidential bid in late June.

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DeSantis’ fundraising report shows signs of strength and real spots of trouble

The top line number for Ron DeSantis’ fundraising haul during the second quarter of this year showed some political force.

But beneath that $20 million figure were warning signs for the Florida governor’s campaign, buried in the details of the data.

More than $3 million of what DeSantis raised was funds earmarked for the general election — meaning donors gave more than the $3,300 limit for the primary and those funds will not be available to the candidate until after the primary is over.

DeSantis also raised $2.8 million from small donors giving less than $200, a number that most candidates in the race would envy but is likely to significantly trail Donald Trump, who had yet to formally file his report Saturday afternoon. A greater share of donations from small-dollar donors is a better sign for future fundraising, since small donors can be repeat givers.

But perhaps the most consequential data point was the pace of the donations. More than one-third of DeSantis’ itemized donations ($5.8 million of the $16.8 million of donations that came from those who gave above $200) came within the first 10 days of his campaign. A good chunk of his donations — $351,000 — came through a transfer from the Draft DeSantis 2024 Fund.

Taken as a whole, the report DeSantis filed with the Federal Election Commission on Saturday is a microcosm of his campaign to date. The Florida governor remains positioned to be a major player in the race — even one who could wrestle the nomination from Trump — with more than $12 million cash on hand at the end of the quarter. But he appears reliant on major donors. And the early allure of his candidacy seems to have worn off a touch.

DeSantis still has plenty of resources at his disposal. A super PAC backing him has attracted more than $100 million, though much of that was transferred from his state-level committee. (The group, Never Back Down, does not have to file its own reports with the FEC until later this month.)

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RFK Jr.’s secret fundraising success: Republicans

The top contributors to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential campaign included donors who typically give to Republicans, according to campaign finance filings — underscoring the extent to which Kennedy, running as a Democrat, is resonating with the other party.

Kennedy’s campaign committee reported raising $6.3 million since his April launch, according to documents filed with the Federal Election Commission on Saturday. He spent $1.8 million and had $4.5 million cash on hand as of June 30.

Some of that money came from donors who have more recently supported Republicans. Kennedy’s campaign raked in at least $100,000 from donors who previously gave to committees associated with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or former President Donald Trump, according to a POLITICO analysis of federal and state campaign finance filings. The analysis is based solely on Kennedy’s itemized donations, although he also raised more than $2 million from small-dollar donors, whose names the campaign does not have to disclose.

Such crossover giving is unusual, but Kennedy is running on a platform that includes opposition to efforts to vaccinate against Covid-19, which is increasingly resonating with the Republican base. Though there has been an uptick in vaccine skepticism in recent years, the biggest increases tend to be among voters who identify as Republican.

Kennedy has also been a frequent guest on Fox News since launching his campaign in April, criticizing President Joe Biden on issues including the war in Ukraine and the response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Among the donors who maxed out donating to Kennedy despite having recent histories of giving to Republicans is banking executive Omeed Malik, who Axios reported is hosting separate fundraisers for DeSantis and Kennedy in the Hamptons this summer.

But some of Kennedy’s top donors had Democratic donation histories, or little campaign donation history at all. Other donors who gave at least $3,300 — the maximum for the primary cycle — to his campaign included hedge fund giant Bill Ackman, a longtime Democratic donor who has said he favors Kennedy and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who is running in the GOP primary.

Kennedy, who is the son of former Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, gained prominence in the mid-2000s as a proponent of discredited opposition to all vaccines. He chaired a nonprofit, Children’s Health Defense, advocating against common childhood vaccines.

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Report: UK defense chief to step down

Ben Wallace won't stand in the next general election, he tells The Times newspaper.

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Ramaswamy: ‘Pervasive’ censorship caused Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol

Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy blamed censorship for motivating rioters to storm the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, rejecting the idea that former President Donald Trump’s false rhetoric about a stolen election caused the violence.

In conversation with former Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson at the Family Leadership Summit on Friday afternoon, Ramaswamy reasoned that big tech platforms’ moderation of news about Hunter Biden’s laptop in 2020 and perceived government overreach around vaccines and stay-at-home mandates during the pandemic prevented people from accessing truth.

“What caused January 6 is pervasive censorship in this country in the lead up to January 6,” Ramaswamy said, repudiating the idea that Trump motivated the riot. “You tell people in this country they cannot speak. That is when they scream. You tell people they cannot scream. That is when they tear things down.”

“Until we look ourselves in the mirror and admit truth on that, we will not move forward as a country,” Ramaswamy added.

Ramaswamy’s comments appear to cater toward the wing of the Republican party that has sought to displace blame around the Jan. 6 riot from Trump’s continued falsehoods that election fraud tipped the vote toward Joe Biden. They also fall in line with popular conservative sentiments that the government has overstepped on First Amendment issues in its relationship with big tech.

Throughout his run, Ramaswamy has not been afraid to break from the mainstream with his positions. In particular, his foreign policy plan includes giving Russia the land it has sought to take from Ukraine during the war in exchange for it giving up its partnership with Beijing. Such a deal would not fly with European allies and stands in stark contrast with the Biden administration’s current approach.

“I would negotiate a deal that ends the Ukraine war, freeze the current lines of control. Yes, that means giving part of the Donbas region to Russia,” Ramaswamy said, referring to a region that Russia has sought to take from Ukraine. “I would make a hard commitment that NATO never admits Ukraine to NATO. And those seem like unspeakable words, certainly in the Republican donor class, but we get something greater in return.”

His eyebrow-raising positions may partly explain his relative success in the GOP primary thus far. A millionaire and successful entrepreneur, Ramaswamy’s rise to fame in conservative circles was due in part to his business ideology that rejected the increasingly commonplace practices of corporate responsibility, specifically around environmental, social and corporate governance.

Despite his relatively low name recognition and dearth of political experience compared to the field, Ramaswamy has increasingly fared well in polls since announcing his presidential run in February. In a Morning Consult poll released on Wednesday — which counts as a poll to qualify for the first GOP debate — the businessman placed third with 8 percent support, surpassing big names including Pence, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

Ramaswamy still has to meet a donor requirement to make the debate stage in August, having rolled out a money solicitation program that would give back supporters a cut of the money they help raise.

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