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Thursday, 11 May 2023

Wagner still holds significant territory in Bakhmut, U.S. officials say


Forces affiliated with Wagner, Russia’s leading paramilitary organization, continue to hold the majority of territory in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut and possess significant stockpiles of ammunition despite some losses, according to two senior U.S. officials.

In the last week, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of Wagner, appeared in a slew of videos on social media threatening to withdraw his soldiers entirely from the city — where they have led the fighting for the Russians in recent months —in part because they did not have the necessary weapons and ammunition.

Instead, Prigozhin said, Chechen forces should take over. The Wagner boss later recanted that threat, saying in one video the Russian defense ministry had made assurances it would send additional resources to the frontline. “We’ll keep pushing for a few more days,” he said.

The statements sparked widespread speculation that Wagner fighters may soon leave Bakhmut altogether, potentially creating an opening for Ukrainian forces to advance. The complete departure of Wagner forces would likely change the trajectory of the war in the eastern part of the country as Russia and Ukraine have been locked in an intense battle inside the city for months and have lost thousands of soldiers.

On Wednesday, Ukrainian officials announced they had captured several of Wagner’s positions on the outskirts of the city. But U.S. officials said they have seen no evidence to suggest that Wagner is preparing for such a total retreat.

Prigozhin has long spoken out against the Russian defense ministry, claiming his soldiers were leading the fight on the ground and that Moscow is not doing enough to help in Bakhmut. U.S. officials said Prigozhin’s recent remarks about Bakhmut are not credible and were likely meant to elicit a reaction from inside Moscow’s defense apparatus — to force Moscow to send additional weapons.

Despite Prigozhion’s statements, Wagner continues to hold significant stockpiles of ammunition and maintains control of at least 85 percent of Bakhmut, the U.S. officials said. One of the officials said although Wagner forces appear intact in Bakhmut it is still possible that Chechen forces move into the city to help.

Both officials who spoke to POLITICO have been involved in recent administration conversations about Russia and Wagner’s activities in Ukraine and were granted anonymity to speak freely about current U.S. intelligence about the situation in Bakhmut.

“We aren’t going to comment on Mr. Prigozhin’s theatrics or on the political posturing that’s going on with him and Russia’s military leaders,” a spokesperson for the National Security Council said. “Mr. Prigozhin has treated his [W]agner soldiers like cannon-fodder, sacrificing their lives for small advances with no apparent strategic gain to try to achieve his political ends.”

Meanwhile, Kyiv and Moscow continue to exchange blows in Bakhmut. The fighting has for weeks stood at a standstill with neither side making any significant advances. On Wednesday, however, Ukrainian officials said forces had pushed back a Russian infantry brigade on the southwestern outskirts of the city.

A Ukrainian win in Bakhmut would hold a certain symbolic significance but western officials have advised Kyiv in recent months not to spend significant amounts of resources on the battle and to instead direct its weapons and fighters to the upcoming spring and summer offensives.

For now, though, Ukraine continues to hold its positions in the city, the officials said.



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House GOP leaders confront last-minute border bill drama

They still have to make changes to win over a coalition of holdouts, but they're confident it'll pass the chamber this week.

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Wednesday, 10 May 2023

Trump’s defeat in Carroll case presages more legal peril


Now is the season of former President Donald Trump’s discontent.

A federal jury’s finding that Donald Trump sexually abused E. Jean Carroll in the mid 1990s is a historic rebuke of a former president and frontrunner for the 2024 GOP nomination. But it’s also a prologue.

Legal threats in Washington, Manhattan and Atlanta — both criminal and civil — are crystallizing in ways Trump has skirted for his entire political life. And the story of his bid to regain the presidency is likely to be defined by his attempts to stave off criminal liability for things he did the last time he occupied the White House.

With one jury verdict in the books — complete with a $5 million award to Carroll — here’s a look at what’s coming next in Trump’s legal travails.

Indictment watch in Fulton County

Key date: July 11

Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis is investigating efforts by Trump and his allies to overturn the results of the 2020 election in Georgia, a state that President Joe Biden won narrowly. Willis recently told local law enforcement to prepare for potential indictments between July 11 and Sept. 1.

Willis’ charging decisions are rooted in the work of a special grand jury she convened to determine whether Trump violated state election laws in his bid to remain in power. That special grand jury probed Trump’s effort to reverse the outcome in Georgia, as well as his broader effort to subvert the election in Washington. The panel focused specifically on Trump’s effort to press state election officials to “find” just enough votes to put him over the top in the state.

The special grand jury — a quirk of Georgia criminal law — has no power to indict but made recommendations about potential prosecutions earlier this year. Willis is not bound to follow those recommendations but said in January that charging decisions were “imminent.” She must now present the evidence gathered by the special grand jury — as well as additional information she’s been gathering in subsequent months — to a traditional grand jury that can issue charges.

Pre-trial motions in the Manhattan hush-money case

Key date: Aug. 8

Manhattan District attorney Alvin Bragg made history when he obtained the first ever criminal indictment of a former president, charging Trump with dozens of felony counts for allegedly cooking his company’s books to secure the silence of a porn star who accused him of an affair.

The judge overseeing the case recently asked lawyers for both sides to agree on a trial date in February or March 2024. In the meantime, expect a long series of pre-trial motions and bids by Trump to dismiss, delay or relocate the proceedings to another district or to federal court. The next major milestone is Aug. 8, when Trump is due to file expected motions to challenge the indictment.

Upcoming trial in New York civil case against the Trump Organization

Key date: Oct. 2

Trump’s eponymous company has already been convicted of tax crimes by a Manhattan jury. But New York isn’t finished with the Trump Organization yet.

Attorney General Letitia James has brought a civil case accusing Trump and the company of misleading banks, insurers and government agencies about the value of their assets in a scheme to obtain favorable tax treatment.

The case is scheduled to go to trial on Oct. 2. It could result in Trump losing his ability to do business in New York.

The federal probe of Trump’s bid to subvert the 2020 election

Special counsel Jack Smith has been on a tear. In recent weeks, he’s hauled in former Vice President Mike Pence to testify to a grand jury, as well as former top aides in the Trump White House — from social media adviser Dan Scavino to policy adviser Stephen Miller to personnel chief Johnny McEntee. Former chief of staff Mark Meadows is expected to appear before the grand jury imminently as well.

These interviews followed a series of intense, secretive legal battles in which Trump fought to stave off their testimony by asserting executive privilege. And in each case, he lost swiftly in both the district court and the court of appeals — setting new precedents for the separation of powers along the way.

The witnesses were key players in the final weeks of Trump’s administration, as he worked desperately to seize a second term despite losing the 2020 election to Biden. When his efforts failed, a mob of his supporters — assembled in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021 at Trump’s call — bashed their way into the Capitol and sent Pence and lawmakers fleeing for their lives.

Of all the investigations Trump faces, the timeline here remains murkiest. Smith is still working to prevail in a long-running legal battle to access the communications of Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), whose phone was seized by the FBI last August. Several other sealed legal fights, which are still unresolved, could unlock additional troves of evidence for Smith and his team of prosecutors — each of which could prolong the investigation by identifying new leads.

The federal probe of Trump’s handling of classified documents

Smith’s work isn’t limited to Jan. 6. He’s also probing Trump’s handling of scores of classified documents found at his Mar-a-Lago estate more than a year after Trump left office. This probe appears significantly more advanced than the Jan. 6 probe, in part because it involves a smaller universe of potential witnesses, many of whom have already appeared before Smith’s grand jury.

One of those recent appearances came from one of Trump’s own lawyers, Evan Corcoran, who was forced by the courts to testify despite Trump’s effort to assert attorney-client privilege. Observers both inside and outside Trump’s orbit have viewed this investigation as closer to completion than the Jan. 6 probe.

Another lawsuit from E. Jean Carroll

Amid Trump’s sprawling legal thicket, Carroll may get another chance to haul him into court. She has sued him over comments he made about her in 2019 — a lawsuit distinct from the case she won on Tuesday (which involved sexual assault and defamation for comments he made in 2022). A trial has been delayed as courts have weighed whether Trump can be sued in his personal capacity over comments he made while president.



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Trump world to donors: A dollar to DeSantis may as well be a donation to Biden


A pro-Trump super PAC is trying a new tactic to woo donors, warning that any cent spent on any GOP candidate other than Donald Trump is a de facto in-kind donation to President Joe Biden.

In a memo sent to top Republicans on Tuesday, MAGA Inc.’s CEO Taylor Budowich painted the 2024 GOP primary as a fait accompli (even without all the candidates even in it). He cited Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ tumble in the polls and Nikki Haley’s inflated fundraising numbers as reasons for donors to unite around Trump.

“One month after Alvin Bragg’s indictment, President Trump has a 41-percent lead in the Morning Consult tracking poll. Republicans have coalesced around President Trump,” the memo reads. “This reality presents a unique opportunity to unite our Party and take the fight directly to Joe Biden and the divided Democrats.”

The memo was sent hours before a New York court delivered a verdict finding that Trump was guilty of sexual abuse of advice columnist E. Jean Carroll and awarding her $5 million in damages for that and defamation.


Budowich’s memo is, to a degree, a classic boast of a campaign that finds itself in a leading position. He describes Trump as “thoroughly vetted on a national stage” and portrays the legal troubles surrounding the ex-president as fundamentally good for him. “GOP voters aren’t just supporting President Trump overwhelmingly despite the investigations, they are supporting him because of the investigations,” he writes. He also writes that the argument Trump is “not electable” doesn’t hold water with recent polling.

But the memo is also notable in another respect: underscoring that Team Trump isn’t content to rest on its current lead but eager to keep attacking its main competitors. The memo bashes DeSantis’ Florida legislative session as a “bucket of cold water” for the governor.

“On top of losing major financial backers and cratering poll numbers, the most memorable part of his legislative session is that he picked a fight with Disney and lost,” Budowich writes. “DeSantis invested tremendous political capital to pass a 6-week abortion ban — in contrast, President Trump maintains a strong pro-life record with exceptions for rape and incest.”

The memo comes as DeSantis inches closer to making a presidential announcement and as Trump’s team is going after high dollar donors for support — some of whom have publicly wobbled on support for DeSantis or have put their donations on ice until they have a more clear picture of the field. The latest sign that the Florida governor plans to announce soon: DeSantis recently severed ties with his state-level PAC, which has a whopping $86 million, opening the door for that money to be transferred to a pro-DeSantis super PAC supporting his presidential ambitions.

Last month, Never Back Down, the pro-DeSantis PAC, said it had raised $30 million. The PAC also plans to have staff in the first 18 states on the Republican nominating calendar, according to the AP.

“While Governor DeSantis tallied up an impressive number of wins for the people of Florida this legislative session, Donald Trump offers the same old, pathetic attacks right out of Nancy Pelosi’s playbook to attempt to diminish the Governor’s conservative success story,” said Erin Perrine, the communications director for Never Back Down in a statement. “Donald Trump blamed the pro-life movement for his endorsed candidates’ losses in the 2022 midterm elections, and states like Trump’s real home, New York, have legalized infanticide up until birth. In Florida, Governor DeSantis has enacted historic measures to defend the dignity of human life and transform Florida into a pro-family state,” she added.

At the end of 2022, MAGA Inc. reported $54.1 million on hand, and the PAC has spent millions on national cable ads taking direct aim at DeSantis’ record on Medicare and Social Security. The PAC also paid for an eyebrow raising ad that accused DeSantis of “sticking his fingers where they don’t belong” into entitlements. The ad was also a reference to a story about DeSantis using his fingers to eat chocolate pudding on an airplane.

The MAGA Inc. memo, according to a PAC official, was being circulated on an individual basis Tuesday “to current, past, and targeted donors to MAGA Inc. and like-minded committees” as it “makes a strong push for unity as it looks towards the end for the quarter.”

After a disappointing midterm election for Republicans, where some important primary races were split over Trump’s endorsement and involvement, the memo calls on donors to rally around one singular Republican candidate to best help 2024 down ballot candidates.

“The 2024 cycle presents a promising opportunity for Republicans to realize massive gains in the U.S. Senate, House of Representatives, and down ballot races across the nation. Unifying early and focusing our collective resources towards maximizing our gains can be the difference maker,” Budowich writes.



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Florida approves K-12 social studies textbooks after pressing publishers to tweak content


TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida’s Department of Education as of Tuesday approved dozens of social studies textbooks for use in local schools after initially rejecting many over content the DeSantis administration found objectionable.

Publishers in many cases tweaked the content in their books after an initial review from the state, according to the state’s education agency.

State education officials flagged several potential textbooks for “political indoctrination,” including one lesson urging parents to speak with their children about kneeling during the National Anthem as a symbol representing America. Publishers also amended some of the books at Florida’s urging, such as removing a reference to the police killing of George Floyd in a middle school book, as Gov. Ron DeSantis continues to fight against “wokeness” in education.

“To uphold our exceptional standards, we must ensure our students and teachers have the highest quality materials available — materials that focus on historical facts and are free from inaccuracies or ideological rhetoric,” Education Commissioner Manny Diaz Jr. said in a statement Tuesday.

The textbook adoption process for social studies was expected to face intense scrutiny in Florida following the state education agency denying dozens of proposed math textbooks last year for containing “impermissible” content, including lessons on critical race theory.

Conservatives in Florida, led by DeSantis, have ramped up criticism about what students are reading and learning in school, particularly surrounding race, gender, and sexual orientation through legislation and rulemaking alike. The Republican-dominated Legislature during its 2023 session passed a bill tightening rules for local book objections by requiring schools to yank challenged works within five days of someone flagging it, a shift opponents equate to “book banning.”

The state is also engaged in a high-profile dispute with the nonprofit College Board after state education department officials rejected its African American studies AP program for initially including coursework on queer theory and intersectionality. The objections angered many Black leaders across the country, with some accusing DeSantis of stoking a cultural fight to boost his presidential aspirations, as the course remains in limbo today.

Florida as of Tuesday accepted 66 of 101 social studies books submitted by publishers for use in the state, according to the Department of Education. Even with 35 books still pending approval, this marks a major jump from last month when the state initially rejected 81 books for various reasons.

The agency on Tuesday cited several examples of publishers modifying books after the state flagged them, such as an “inaccurate description of socialism” in one middle school book that claimed the political philosophy "keeps things nice and even and without necessary waste" and "may promote greater equality among people while still providing a fully functioning government-supervised economy." The publisher stripped that language in a change to the textbook posted by the state.

The DeSantis administration also spurred one publisher to remove a section in a middle school textbook about “New Calls for Social Justice,” which mentioned the Black Lives Matter movement and Floyd police killing in 2020. This piece of text detailed that “while many American sympathized” with Black Lives Matters, “others charged that the movement was anti-police.”

Florida determined this content broached “unsolicited topics,” yet critics pan the state's decision to reject it.

“Look at the revisions they are celebrating & ask yourself if you trust [Florida] to write our history,” the Florida Freedom to Read Project, an organization that monitors local book challenges, wrote in a tweet.

DeSantis officials, meanwhile, credited the Florida Department of Education for pushing publishers to rethink their proposals to the state.

“The political indoctrination of children through the K-12 public education system is a very real and prolific problem in this country,” DeSantis press secretary Bryan Griffin wrote in a tweet Tuesday.



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House GOP leaders strike private deal to move forward on border bill

Republican leaders are racing to lock down support ahead of a Thursday vote.

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Feds turn antitrust focus to digital pharma ads


The Federal Trade Commission is currently investigating a merger in an obscure but lucrative part of the pharmaceutical industry: The $8 billion digital advertising market.

IQVIA is buying Propel Media, which owns DeepIntent, one of the main advertising technology companies used by drugmakers to market their products to doctors and patients. FTC staff have been investigating the deal for months, according to four people with direct knowledge of the matter and confirmed by IQVIA.

The deal, which has not been previously disclosed, was first inked last year, three of the people said. IQVIA is believed to have paid in the range of $700 million to $800 million for the purchase, according to two of the people. The FTC investigation has also not been previously reported.

At issue in the FTC probe is whether the deal would help IQVIA, a $35 billion pharmaceutical data and analytics company, lock up the bulk of the market for digital advertising of pharmaceuticals aimed at doctors and patients, thereby harming rivals and potentially increasing costs for drugmakers, said three of the people, who were granted anonymity to discuss a confidential investigation. IQVIA is already the largest player in health data and analytics.

The FTC is nearing the end of its investigation, and staff lawyers reviewing the deal are leaning toward filing a lawsuit to block it, according to two of the people. No final decision has been made, and the agency could ultimately choose to not bring a case.

“There are many companies — from very large, well-known companies (e.g., Google, Microsoft/Xandr, WebMD) to smaller recent entrants — providing technology, data, and services to support digital advertising from life science companies to doctors and patients,” IQVIA spokesperson Trent Brown said. “IQVIA began providing some of these services only in the past few years, and the DeepIntent business will fill a gap in IQVIA’s offerings by adding a demand-side platform.”



Brown said the company will continue working with the FTC to clear the deal.

A DeepIntent spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. A FTC spokesperson declined to comment.

IQVIA is the leading provider of pharmaceutical sales and reference data, and also sells software for analyzing that information. Drug companies use IQVIA’s trove of information — which includes over 800 million de-identified patient records and petabytes of sales, promotional and prescription data — to gauge the likely demand for the drugs they’re developing and accurately compensate their sales forces. Generic drug companies, for example, can use the data to determine if it is financially feasible to introduce a competitor to a branded drug.

DeepIntent is a privately held advertising technology company that works with pharmaceutical companies to market drugs to doctors and patients. It also helps client companies measure and improve the success of those ad campaigns.

IQVIA made multiple moves in 2022 to build out an advertising business, including the separate purchase of Lasso Marketing, another health care ad tech company.

The FTC is investigating both the combination of the two direct competitors — Lasso and DeepIntent — as well as so-called “vertical” concerns of whether IQVIA would be able to leverage its mountain of pharmaceutical sales data to monopolize the pharmaceutical advertising market, three of the people said.



In its most recent annual report, IQVIA said the scope of its data covers more than 85 percent of the world’s pharmaceuticals. That includes “more than 1.2 billion comprehensive, longitudinal, non-identified patient records spanning sales, prescription and promotional data, medical claims, electronic medical records, genomics, and social media” from around 150,000 data suppliers.

Pharmaceutical advertising is big business. The total U.S. market for pharma ads is at least $11.5 billion, based on data collected by advertising analytics company Standard Media Index. Darrick Li, SMI’s vice president of sales in North America said anecdotal evidence could put that number as high as $15 billion. Of that, he said, around 53 percent (roughly $8 billion at the high estimate) is digital, which is growing at a rapid 17 percent clip, in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the year-earlier period, Li said.

And while the pharmaceutical industry has been slow to evolve from traditional television ads, the digital shift is happening, and that’s where companies like DeepIntent come in. According to industry participants, it is one of a handful of companies helping drugmakers target ads at both doctors and patients. Last year the company said it could offer guarantees on the number of verified patients reached.

In targeting ads at doctors, IQVIA is already a key supplier of data to DeepIntent.

Part of the FTC investigation is focused on how the deal could pose a threat to competing ad platforms serving the pharmaceutical industry including The Trade Desk, which uses IQVIA data, as well as Pulse Point, according to three of the people with knowledge of the investigation. Those companies help advertisers, including drugmakers, place ads around the internet. The latter is owned by Internet Brands, which also owns WebMD and Medscape, an informational service for health care providers.

The FTC is concerned that with both DeepIntent and Lasso, the bulk of these ads will run through IQVIA, those people said. Those ads show up on health care-focused websites used by doctors, and general websites across the internet.

Spokespeople for The Trade Desk and Pulse Point did not respond for comment.

The FTC is also focused on IQVIA’s ability to control the market for services that measure the success of digital advertising campaigns. IQVIA offers this service, as do companies including Veeva Systems and PurpleLab. Those companies can currently measure the success of advertising campaigns run by DeepIntent, but if the merger goes through, the FTC is concerned IQVIA would make it more difficult for them to do so, according to three of the people.

Spokespeople for Veeva and PurpleLab did not respond for comment.

“Does this give IQVIA the incentive and ability to withhold the data or raise prices to people who access it today? If the answer to that is ‘yes,’ then maybe there's an antitrust issue here,” a health care lawyer said on the condition of anonymity, due to client conflicts.

The FTC is concerned with exactly that scenario, the people said.

However, at least one ad tech expert disagrees.

“IQVIA in this case is just buying a revenue stream,” said Augustine Fou, a digital advertising consultant who advises companies including drugmakers. “They are unlikely to turn away revenue from selling data if other companies are willing to pay for it. While it’s possible that IQVIA could favor its own platform, for example by only selling outdated data to competitors, that would be difficult to prove before it happened.”

When a company controls a key input used by its competitors — in this case pharmaceutical sales data — it only works to withhold that data from rivals if it facilitates a price increase that would justify the lost revenue.

In this case, Fou said IQVIA would be unlikely to recoup its losses by raising prices for its advertising services. And even though DeepIntent’s lower data costs post-merger would allow it to theoretically undercut its rivals on price, it would take years to get advertisers and agencies to switch to DeepIntent, even with prolonged, deeply discounted pricing, because of long-term contracts, Fou said.

IQVIA is no stranger to antitrust scrutiny or the FTC. The company was previously investigated by the agency’s lawyers for how it bundles various products, and its unwillingness to allow competing software companies to access its data. The related FTC investigation, first reported by The Capitol Forum, did not result in an enforcement action.

Antitrust enforcers in recent years have been wading deeply into the complex world of digital advertising, primarily targeting Google, which was sued by the Justice Department in January over allegations it has illegally monopolized the market.

Within the greater world of programmatic advertising, DeepIntent is a relatively small player. However, specializing in health care gives it an edge in its specific niche over larger players. For example, Google allows pharmaceutical companies to run search ads and place ads in health care-focused websites. However, the platform does not allow advertisers to target consumers based on health information and also cannot target doctors directly.

A Google spokesperson declined to comment.

Google’s leading position in the overall digital ad market is not a factor in the FTC’s investigation, according to three of the people with knowledge of the probe.



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