Opinion | Trump’s Election Denialism Is Already Winning

Presidents of the United States who have lost elections generally don’t go on to dominate their parties and win the office again.

Donald Trump has found a work-around, by denying he was defeated in 2020. This effort has been overwhelmingly successful among its target audience of Republican voters and has tilted the playing field of the 2024 nomination battle in his favor.

Trump has made himself the incumbent in exile, the sitting president in the hearts and minds of his supporters, the martyr of shadowy forces (so shadowy, in fact, that they can’t be readily identified) and the true heir chiseled out of his rightful throne by an unscrupulous pretender.

This creates a terrible dilemma for Trump’s opponents: How do you run against a defeated president without noting the highly relevant fact that he was, ahem, defeated?

A new CBS Poll underlines the dynamic. The top-line numbers, with Trump ahead of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis by 58 to 22 percent nationally, aren’t all that different from the latest Fox News poll of the Democratic race, with President Joe Biden leading Democratic candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., 62 to 19 percent.

CBS also asked what attributes Republicans would like to see in a nominee. Sixty-one percent want a candidate who says Trump won in 2020. That desire among Republican voters inherently favors Trump, since no one is going to be as adamant and outlandish in maintaining that Trump won than Trump himself.

Among voters supporting Trump, three-quarters say a reason that they are backing him is that he actually won in 2020.

It wasn’t crazy to think that this view would fade over time after the 2020 election, as passions cooled and as Republicans felt less defensive of the former president. Perhaps most Republicans don’t think that there was honest-to-goodness fraud in 2020, and instead merely believe the rules and the press coverage were unfair — in other words, their answers to pollsters should be taken seriously, not literally.

Even if this is so, it will still require finesse on part of Trump’s opponents when addressing 2020. And it may well be that Republicans are simply being literal.

Insisting the election was stolen and convincing his party of this claim has worked for Trump on multiple levels — first and foremost, as a salve to his ego; in the immediate aftermath of the 2020 election, as the rationale for trying to overturn the result; and ever since, as the necessary condition for his come-back (if that’s the right word, since he never left).

Trump has ruled out of bounds one of the most telling critiques of him for Republican primary voters. Throwing at him that he lost a winnable election in 2020 should be the easiest criticism to make. It doesn’t require departing with him on substance or attacking his character. It needn’t involve condemning him for January 6. It should have, in theory, equal appeal to Trump fans and Trump skeptics, all of whom have a shared interest in defeating Biden. The argument can be swaddled in warm sentiments: “You did so much good and were such a brave fighter as president, Donald, so it’s a real shame you lost. But you did. And we can’t afford to lose again. Sorry.”

Trump’s contention that he actually won, and his intense bond with his supporters, creates the real possibility that making this case against him will boomerang, though.

On Trump’s terms, which are widely accepted in the party, admitting the legitimacy of the 2020 election marks someone as a sell-out to the establishment, a political moderate and a weakling rather than a fighter. It also constitutes an affront to Trump, and therefore a kind of personal attack.

The broad feeling among Republicans is that they don’t want to hear anything disparaging about Trump. In the same poll, CBS News asked what voters would want to see in the 2024 GOP nominee if he or she isn’t Trump. Only 7 percent said they want someone who criticizes Trump. Another 56 percent said they want someone who doesn’t talk about Trump, and 37 percent said they want someone who shows loyalty to him. A crushing total of more than 90 percent of Republicans want silence or acquiescence from a GOP nominee when it comes to his or her predecessor.

This makes trying to get by Trump in the GOP primaries not just a balancing act, but the political equivalent of performing Philippe Pettit’s walk between the Twin Towers while playing Yankee Doodle on a ukulele.

The presidential candidates opposing Trump have to choose whether to accept Trump’s version of 2020, to avoid talking about the matter, to dodge by saying the election was “rigged” without calling it stolen or to tell the truth. The temptation to pull up somewhere short of the last option will be strong, but it’s hard to see how anyone defeats Trump without going there.

If it’s accepted that Trump supposedly beat Biden in 2020, well, then, he’s basically owed another shot at it, and, as a two-time winner of presidential elections, there’s not much of a case that he has an electability problem.

DeSantis has talked lately of the GOP’s “culture of losing,” an oblique, if obvious reference to Trump. If the governor feels he has to pull his punches before he actually gets in the race, that’s understandable. To deal with this issue only indirectly would be a mistake, though. Trump alienated swing voters, lost his last election and has grasped at any conspiracy theory to try to cover his tracks. DeSantis attracted swing voters, won his last election and doesn’t have anything he needs to feel ashamed about. That’s an enormous difference, and it should figure prominently in the governor’s campaign.

Give Trump this: He doesn’t necessarily accept public opinion as it is but tries to shape it. Although there’d be widespread Republican doubts about the 2020 election no matter what he said, the belief that it was stolen wouldn’t be as deep and pervasive without his persistent (and deceptive) advocacy. He’s changed the landscape in his favor, and his opponents simply accept it at their peril.

For Trump to lose the nomination, what should be his chief vulnerability needs to be a vulnerability — and his Republican opponents must try to make it one.

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Is Justin Trudeau ready for the fight?

OTTAWA, Canada — Four thousand Liberals have two things top of mind as they huddle here for their biennial convention: Pierre Poilievre and the next election.

The Conservative is a feisty and unifying force who wants to be Canada’s next prime minister. He trounced the competition in last summer’s leadership race and mobilized thousands of party members as he heralded a new era of right-wing politics.

He fires up the Liberals, too.

Poilievre won’t physically be at the convention, but nor will he be far — fuel for chit chat at boozy receptions and the motivation for any strategizing that takes place. All of it forces a question, whether said out loud or not: Is Justin Trudeau ready for the fight?

The prime minister will make his case in a headline speech that opens the convention on Thursday night.

Greg MacEachern, a Liberal lobbyist and former Parliament Hill staffer, sums up the state of play using a well-worn adage most recently deployed by President Joe Biden at the White House Correspondents' Dinner: “Don’t compare me to the all-mighty, compare me to the alternative.” Top-line figures in a new poll from Abacus Data — 33 percent Conservatives, 31 percent Liberals — suggest an election today would be tight. Factor in the margin of error and the race between Liberals and Conservatives is a statistical tie.

But it’s the trends below the surface that should give party rank and file pause as they chatter away in the bars and backrooms of Ottawa. The negatives have worsened since the 2021 election: For the PM. For the government. And on the direction of the country.

Average voters appear to have lost the thread the Liberals are spinning.

“I don't get a sense that they have a clear understanding of exactly what the government's plan is,” says Abacus pollster David Coletto. “They probably hear things about battery plants and investments in a green economy — and I would suspect most people support that kind of thing, but they don't see a connection between those specific events and outcomes and the broader kind of story that the Liberals want to be able to tell.”

Overall, signs point to a likely Conservative win unless something changes.

Helming the party for roughly a decade, Trudeau has accumulated his share of baggage, something that would typically raise obvious questions of succession.

There was his family's holiday visit in 2016 to the island in the Bahamas owned by the Aga Khan. There was the time he allegedly pressured his justice minister to give a get-out-of-jail-free card to a Quebec-based engineering giant that faced bribery charges. There was the bombshell publication later in 2019 of photos in which Trudeau wore blackface.

More and more recently, Poilievre and his Conservatives are asking whether the three-term government is deserving of another.

But so far, few Liberals are talking openly about ending the Trudeau era and starting fresh. Broach the point with insiders, and they’ll all tell you the same thing.

“Justin Trudeau is a huge asset for the Liberal Party,” says MacEachern.

Even so, the convention also offers future leadership aspirants a chance to gladhand and expand their support base. Mélanie Joly, Canada’s foreign minister and rumored contender in a race down the road, is hosting a reception at a trendy bar.

She is also the opening act for Trudeau's speech on Thursday evening, where insiders expect a rousing call-to-action to energize the base.

As the convention opened, the Hill was abuzz with a Radio-Canada story that claimed the Prime Minister's Office told another potential aspirant, Defense Minister Anita Anand, to slow her roll.

How the party and its leaders communicate their message will be a constant refrain on and off the convention floor. The governing party has yet to earn much credit on some of the big issues it has shoveled money into fixing — the cost of living, child care, housing and health, for example.

The gathering poses plenty of opportunities to re-tune.

Dan Arnold, a former head of polling in the Prime Minister's Office who has attended every party convention since Paul Martin was elected leader in 2003, hails from Alberta — a traditionally weak spot for Liberals.

He says the confab offers delegates a chance to take their message directly to the party's powerbrokers. "It is good to have that prairie voice more in people's faces," he says, where they can have a "direct conversation in a hospitality suite with somebody in the PMO."

There is work to be done in the Prairies.

Labor Minister Seamus O'Regan reflected on the party's weakness in western provinces on stage at the Public Policy Forum's recent Canada Growth Summit. And he elaborated on his remarks about the 2019 federal election in an interview with POLITICO.

"The Liberal Party was thrown out of Alberta and Saskatchewan. We lost [Cabinet minister] Ralph Goodale in Wascana. That was big. And you really have to ask yourself, 'Well, what do we do?' " he said.

O'Regan, who served as Canada’s natural resources minister, acknowledges the political challenges of heralding a clean energy transition — especially in Alberta.

"Workers felt marginalized and patronized. You gotta watch that,” he said. “If you were driven to lower emissions in this country, if you really do believe that Canada can be a leader in this field, then workers are not 'that thing over there in that part of the country that we’ve got to kind of deal with.'"

The first in-person convention in four years will also offer delegates an opportunity to formally influence party policy. They'll debate 36 resolutions, including a pitch to boost annual defense spending to C$32 billion and "massively invest in renovating NORAD infrastructure."

Delegates will also debate lowering the voting age to 17 and introducing a guaranteed basic liveable income.

The government has spent considerable resources responding to the war in Ukraine, countering the Inflation Reduction Act's green subsidies, and checking off items on the confidence-and-supply deal with the NDP that keeps the minority-status Liberals in power.

Some backroom chatter will focus on pivoting a reactive policy agenda to a more proactive offer and an election platform.

Most Liberal delegates despise their freedom-evangelizing foe. But they acknowledge Poilievre’s uncanny ability to raise piles of cash in pursuit of ending Trudeau's time as prime minister.

The Conservative leader won’t be near the convention floor, but he’s still going to force some uncomfortable conversations.

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Sinema and Tillis pitch two-year border patch as Trump-era policy expires

A Trump-era policy is set to expire next week, sparking warnings of an increase of migrants along the southern border. And now, a bipartisan pair of senators is trying to buy the Biden administration more time.

Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) are working on legislation that would grant a temporary two-year authority to expel migrants from the United States similar to what is currently allowed under Title 42, a law that permits the U.S. to deny asylum and migration claims for public health reasons, a Sinema aide told POLITICO.

The aide noted that a key distinction is that the extension being proposed by Tillis and Sinema, which was first reported by POLITICO, does not rely on a public health order, making it functionally different from the Trump-era program that Biden kept in place.

The legislation would provide protections for migrants whose return to their home countries would threaten their life, freedom, or expose them to torture. It also provides protections for migrants with acute medical needs, according to a Sinema aide.

The legislation would need at least 60 votes to pass the Senate, making it all but guaranteed that it won't pass before Title 42’s expiration, and it faces an uphill climb more broadly in a chamber that has struggled in recent years to find consensus on border and immigration issues.

And it comes as the House is set to vote on its own sweeping border and immigration proposal next week. But it’s not meant to be a response to that bill — with aides and senators involved noting that Sinema, Tillis and others are holding broader talks on a separate track — but instead is in response to the looming May 11 date for the expiration of the Trump-era authority.

The end of Title 42 has sparked fierce criticism from Republicans, as well as warnings from some Democrats who worry that the administration doesn’t have the resources positioned along the U.S.-Mexico border to be able to process an increase in migrants seeking entry into the United States.

Eleven Senate Republicans — including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) — sent a letter to Biden Wednesday urging him to reverse course and keep Title 42 in place. Graham, in a press conference on Wednesday, compared the end of Title 42 to “being hit by a slow moving truck in Kansas."

"I'm asking them to find an acceptable substitute for Title 42," he added.

The administration had initially planned to end the Trump-era program on May 23, 2022. But the policy got tied up in a lengthy court battle as Republicans made an effort to keep the authority in place. The Biden administration then announced in February that the end of the Covid-19 pandemic public health emergency would also terminate Title 42.

But the issue is rife with potential political trip wires for the Biden administration, who faced public urging from Democrats over the past year to keep the program in place. Tillis and Sinema offered an amendment late last year that, among other provisions, would have extended Title 42 and boosted border funding. The proposal failed but got support from several senators up for reelection in 2024 in red and purple states: Sens. Sinema, Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).

Asked whether he would support a two-year expulsion authority similar to Title 42, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) told reporters on Thursday that he’s instead been “working on getting the resources” border officials need if Title 42 goes away.

“We’re looking at other options. Right now I’ve been focused on getting the resources they need for when May 11 comes,” said Kelly, who previously voted for the duo’s amendment last year.

Manchin, who like Sinema hasn’t yet announced if he will run for reelection, called the end of Title 42 a “shame” and appeared frustrated by Congress’ inability to legislate on the border.

“I think the border has to be secure, period. … It’s a disaster at the border,” Manchin said in a brief interview, asked about steps the administration or lawmakers should take.

The administration has been ramping up its response to the policy ending as they face concerns about being able to respond to a potential increase sparked by both the end of Title 42 and the upcoming summer season.

The administration announced late last month that it would establish immigration processing centers throughout Latin America to help slow down the number of migrants coming to the U.S.

And earlier this week the administration announced it would add another 1,500 active-duty troops to the southern border to deal with the influx of migrants expected with the expiration of Title 42.

The additional troops, which are being sent to fill a request from the Department of Homeland Security, will fill “critical capability gaps,” including detection and monitoring, data entry and warehouse support. They will be there for up to 90 days, after which military reservists or contractors will do the work.

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Trump will not present defense case in Carroll trial

NEW YORK — Donald Trump won’t present a defense case in a civil rape trial in Manhattan federal court, his lawyer said Wednesday.

Lawyers for the former president had been poised to call one witness in his defense — a psychiatrist — but that person proved unable to testify due to a medical issue, according to Trump lawyer Joe Tacopina.

Trump is being sued by E. Jean Carroll, a writer, for battery and defamation. Carroll alleges Trump raped her in a dressing room at luxury department store Bergdorf Goodman in the mid-1990s. Trump has denied the allegation, calling her claim a “hoax,” and saying it “never happened.”

Tacopina said earlier this week that Trump himself also won’t take the witness stand.

The former president hasn’t attended the trial, which began last week, but on Wednesday jurors did see a 20-minute portion of his videotaped deposition, recorded in October 2022.

On screen, Trump appeared somewhat sullen, answering questions with his arms folded on a table in front of him and his shoulders hunched. He called Carroll’s allegation “the most ridiculous, disgusting story.”

“It’s just made up,” he said.

On Wednesday, the jury also heard testimony from a clinical psychologist, Leslie Lebowitz; Carroll’s sister, Cande Carroll; and Natasha Stoynoff, a writer who has alleged Trump sexually assaulted her in 2005.

During Stoynoff’s testimony, jurors were shown a clip of the “Access Hollywood” tape, a recording from 2005 in which Trump boasts, “When you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything,” adding: “Grab them by the pussy. You can do anything.”

Carroll’s lawyers are expected to show another portion of the deposition to jurors Thursday.

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California lawmaker running for Congress is arrested for drunk driving

A California Democratic lawmaker running for a battleground congressional seat in Orange County has been arrested for drunk driving.

State Sen. Dave Min, who was arrested Tuesday night in Sacramento, confirmed the arrest in a statement.

“Last night I received a misdemeanor for driving under the influence. My decision to drive last night was irresponsible,” Min said. “I accept full responsibility and there is no excuse for my actions."

Min was pulled over near the state Capitol by the California Highway Patrol when he drove through a red light with his headlights off, according to the arrest report.

Officers conducted a DUI test and arrested him on suspicion of driving with a blood alcohol level above the legal limit. He was booked into the Sacramento County jail and released Wednesday.

Min, who is running for the seat held by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, apologized for the incident.

"To my family, constituents and supporters, I am so deeply sorry. I know I need to do better," he said. "I will not let this personal failure distract from our work in California and in Washington."

Min is running to replace outgoing Porter in an Orange County district that will be one of the most competitive seats in the 2024 cycle. Porter narrowly defended the 47th Congressional District in 2022 but has given up the seat to run for Senate and endorsed Min as her successor.

Min has secured some key endorsements and raised more than $520,000 in the first quarter of 2023 as Democrats look to defend a seat that could be key to reclaiming the House.

Min is not the only Democrat in the race: He’s contending against Women for American Values and Ethics founder Joanna Weiss. Former Rep. Harley Rouda dropped out of the contest in April.

Lara Korte contributed to this report.

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Coinbase squares off with Washington’s top crypto skeptic

When Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam launched Coinbase more than a decade ago, they made an unconventional choice for a startup in the libertarian-leaning cryptocurrency market: They would embrace, not reject, regulation.

Now, Coinbase is going to war with Washington’s top financial cop.

In the five weeks since the Gary Gensler-led Securities and Exchange Commission warned that it was poised to bring charges against the company, Coinbase — the largest U.S. crypto exchange — has gone on the offensive.

Armstrong, the chief executive, has threatened to move Coinbase out of the U.S. The company brought aboard corporate America’s go-to SEC challenger, former Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia, to lead a lawsuit against the agency filed on April 24. And, just days later, Coinbase took the rare step of publicly releasing its official rebuttal to the SEC, in which the company called itself “a well-resourced adversary.”

“The reality is that the law today does not apply to vast swaths of the digital asset market,” Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal said Thursday in an interview. “We don’t relish the opportunity to be in court with an important regulator, the SEC. But we will stand up for the rule of law as it currently exists, not just for Coinbase but the entire industry.”

Coinbase’s blitz against the SEC offers a prelude to what could be the crypto market’s biggest showdown yet. Over the last two years, the two have been locking horns over the exchange’s operations and crypto regulation more broadly. Yet if the SEC brings charges as expected, the case would represent the biggest test to date of Gensler’s tough stance toward the $1 trillion crypto market as well as a potential threat to Coinbase’s business — and the crypto market’s future in the U.S.

“Everything is on the line,” said Emily Garnett, a former SEC attorney who is now a shareholder at Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck.

An SEC spokesperson declined to comment.

Under Gensler, who was sworn in as chair just days after Coinbase went public two years ago, the SEC has been aggressively cracking down on the crypto market’s gatekeepers. But the enforcement campaign took on new speed after Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX, the once-lionized crypto exchange, collapsed late last year.

Since then, the SEC has brought a range of crypto-related cases against everyone from celebrities like Lindsay Lohan to digital asset giants such as Gemini and Kraken. Its campaign has been part of a broader and relatively new skepticism toward crypto in Washington. Lawmakers have hit pause on some crypto legislative efforts, bank regulators have ratcheted up their warnings about the market and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission even recently went after Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange.

The Coinbase case, however, would stand apart.

Coinbase has long been seen in crypto circles as a leader in regulatory compliance after acquiring an array of state and federal licenses in its early days. But the SEC’s expected charges against the company signal that few are immune from Gensler's crackdown.

In the agency's so-called Wells notice to the company, the SEC indicated that it was preparing a "kitchen sink" of charges against Coinbase's businesses, said J.W. Verret, a law professor at George Mason University. That includes its staking service, wallet product and the exchange itself, which represents a pillar of Coinbase’s business that generated about 74 percent of total revenue in 2022.

Gensler says much of the crypto market consists of tokens that are akin to stocks and bonds, so companies trading or listing them need to be registered with the agency — just as if they were the New York Stock Exchange or Charles Schwab.

“Crypto markets suffer from a lack of regulatory compliance,” he said in a video posted online Thursday that did not mention Coinbase. “It’s not a lack of regulatory clarity.”

But Coinbase denies that it deals in securities. In its official response to the Wells notice, the company pointed to its “robust listing process” that screens tokens and rejects about 90 percent of assets reviewed.

Coinbase went further to say that the SEC’s looming charges would be an “abrupt about-face” from when the agency signed off on the company’s paperwork to go public in April 2021. The approval, Coinbase argued, allowed investors to infer that the SEC took no issue with its core business. The response was written by Steven Peikin, an attorney at Sullivan & Cromwell representing Coinbase who previously served as the SEC’s co-head of enforcement.

“It makes little or no sense that now — two years after the fact — we would find ourselves staring at a Wells notice,” Grewal said.

An SEC official who was granted anonymity to speak freely about agency processes said the SEC’s review of a company's registration statement generally looks at the relevant disclosure and accounting laws, not the underlying business' merits.

The SEC has appeared recently to be building up a foundation for the Coinbase action, though, securities lawyers say.

Notably, the agency has alleged in other cases that certain tokens trading on Coinbase are securities. And it has sued other crypto exchanges like Bittrex for allegedly running an unregistered national securities exchange, broker-dealer and clearing agency. Bittrex, which had previously announced plans to leave the U.S., said it will fight the litigation. The SEC filed a similar case the previous month against another crypto platform called Beaxy.com.

But crypto advocates are expressing hope that Coinbase — given the company’s profile, resources and willingness to fight the SEC — could win as the case moves through the courts.

“It’s always an uphill climb when a regulator brings a lawsuit,” said Marisa Tashman Coppel, policy counsel at the Blockchain Association. “But none of the cases have gone up to the Court of Appeals and none of them have gone up to the Supreme Court. So, I am optimistic.”

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World Bank taps Banga as next leader

Ajay Banga has been chosen to serve as the next president of the World Bank, taking over the global finance institution as it strives to help low-income countries overcome debt and combat climate change.

The bank’s 25-member executive board voted in favor of Banga on Wednesday after the former Mastercard executive traveled the globe in recent weeks to shore up support. President Joe Biden nominated him for the post in February and he was the only contender for the job.

His five-year term will begin June 2, the World Bank said in a press release.

Banga's selection was not unanimous. Russia, which had previously said it was considering putting forward its own candidate for the job but ultimately did not, abstained from the vote, said a person close to the selection process. A senior administration official said the board's votes are "strictly confidential" but that Banga was "elected with resounding approval."

The position of World Bank president traditionally goes to an American citizen. Banga holds U.S. citizenship but was born and raised in India.

Banga will now oversee the World Bank’s pivot as it aims to become a dominant player in climate finance and help low-income economies bankroll the transition to cleaner energy sources and manufacturing processes.

But those priorities will cost trillions of dollars that shareholders like the U.S. and European Union are not eager to spend at the moment. What’s more, the bank must also contend with other pressing needs facing the world’s poorest countries, including rising food insecurity and unsustainable levels of debt.

“Ajay understands that the challenges we face — from combating climate change, pandemics, and fragility to eliminating extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity — are deeply intertwined,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement.

The bank has begun adopting reforms that will “sharpen” its mission, Yellen continued, adding that “our ambitious goals will not be met overnight, and we remain committed to a staged adoption of reforms over the course of the year to build on the vision we have laid out.”

The White House recognizes that the World Bank faces a pivotal moment as countries face concerning levels of debt and the global economy continues to contend with the effects of the coronavirus pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine, a second senior administration official told reporters Wednesday.

"Getting the evolution of the World Bank right is absolutely critical to meeting the moment," the second official said, adding that Biden believes Banga "has the track record and the know how to rise to the occasion and make sure the World Bank delivers for the globe."

Banga was the president and chief executive officer of credit card giant Mastercard from 2010 to 2020 and remained the company’s executive chairman for a year after that. He left to join General Atlantic, one of the world’s largest private equity firms, where he served as vice chairman.

The World Bank’s current president, David Malpass, announced earlier this year that he would step down in June. Malpass was nominated by then-President Donald Trump in 2019 and selected for a five-year term.

Adam Behsudi contributed to this report.

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