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Monday 17 April 2023

New Mexico governor fears a national ban on abortion


New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham said Sunday she is worried the U.S. is headed toward a national ban on abortion, as state legislatures and courts move to squeeze abortion access across the country.

“It's every social issue that you disagree with, is it stem cell research, is it fertility, drugs, whatever it is, in this context, if we're going to use the federal courts as a way to bar and ban access, we are looking at a national abortion ban and more,” Lujan Grisham said on CBS' "Face the Nation."

The Democratic governor recently signed two bills into law protecting abortion providers and guaranteeing access to reproductive and gender-affirming care, just as a judge in neighboring Texas moved to suspend the FDA’s approval of mifepristone — one of two drugs used together to cause an abortion.

With the fate of mifepristone now tied up in the courts, a number of states which support access to abortion have moved to stockpile the drug. But states need to do more than build up a cache of the abortion pill, Lujan Grisham said.

“We were going to make sure — we already are — that we have access to all of those medications,” she told host Margaret Brennan. “But if the response is we'll stockpile instead of protecting all access, then we're minimizing the work that we have to do to make sure that women and families are fully protected.”

The New Mexico legislation that Lujan Grisham signed puts no restrictions on when during a pregnancy a woman can get an abortion.

“These are horrific medical conditions. And again, New Mexico's position, and mine, is that we should not be interfering with a woman's right medical situation and her decision about that life-threatening potential circumstance,” Lujan Grisham said. “We shouldn't be doing that.”



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Sunday 16 April 2023

Ukraine’s bumper grain exports rile allies in Eastern Europe

Polish farmers are protesting over a surge in grain shipments redirected through their market, months before national elections.

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Japan's prime minister vows to boost G-7 security after smoke bomb attack

Fumio Kishida was unhurt in incident, which had echoes of the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last summer.

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Nikki Haley’s fuzzy fundraising math


When Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign announced its first quarterly fundraising haul earlier this month, the figure sounded impressive.

The former U.N. ambassador’s campaign said it had raised $11 million between her mid-February launch and the end of the quarter on March 31. It got that figure by saying Haley’s campaign had $5.1 million in receipts, along with $4.4 million for Team Stand for America, a joint fundraising committee, and $1.2 million for Stand for America PAC, a Haley-launched leadership PAC.

But after Haley filed her first-quarter report to the Federal Election Commission late Saturday, an altogether different story has emerged. Her campaign’s math didn’t add up.

What Haley’s campaign and two affiliated groups actually raised was about $8.3 million. The discrepancy between the Haley campaign’s public statements and the numbers on the filings appear to be a case of double-counting.

Haley’s campaign alone raised $5.1 million. But $1.8 million of that total came in a transfer from Team Stand for America, and SFA Fund, Inc., a hybrid PAC that can send limited amounts of money directly to candidates but is prohibited from coordinating its independent expenditures with the campaign. But that’s not the only double counting that appears to have happened. Haley’s leadership PAC also received a $886,000 transfer from her joint fundraising committee — a total that the campaign seeks to count twice in the quarterly total across all three vehicles.

The web of campaign finance laws around various committees is complicated, especially after the Supreme Court’s Citizens United case last decade. And in a statement, Haley’s campaign insisted that it was simply sharing the three vehicles’ total receipts, without sharing that those figures included transfers between them.

“We reported $11 million, the sum of entities,” Ken Farnaso, Haley’s campaign press secretary, wrote in an email, adding that other presidential candidates also have multiple fundraising vehicles.

Had they counted those transfers only once, Haley’s $11 million becomes about $8.3 million. That’s still a strong sum for her first six weeks as a candidate, but it’s not quite what was touted in the media over the past two weeks.

As a direct comparison, when former President Donald Trump’s campaign shared its first-quarter fundraising numbers with POLITICO, it said he raised nearly $19 million across both the campaign (which raised $14.4 million) and his joint fundraising committee ($18.8 million), which transferred $14 million to the campaign.

Using the same campaign’s methodology, Trump would have raised more than $32 million — a figure far greater than his actual haul.

That said, there are examples of Trump’s campaign fudging the math, too. Ahead of the last quarterly deadline, in January, some media outlets reported the Trump campaign claimed it raised $9.5 million from the launch of his third bid for the presidency — even though the actual number after the filings should have been closer to $5 million, since it also included transfers from joint fundraising committee into other committees.



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Trump’s fundraising was lagging. Then he said an indictment was imminent.


Former President Donald Trump’s latest campaign finance filing showed how his indictment spurred a last-minute fundraising surge. It also showed he used that money to pay close advisors and top aides while some went to his own properties and businesses.

The former president’s campaign raised $14.5 million during the first quarter of 2023, according to a first-quarter filing with the Federal Election Commission late Saturday. The filing backs up the notion that Trump experienced a fundraising surge linked to talk of the indictment: more than 30 percent of his quarterly fundraising from itemized donors came in during the final 12 days of the quarter, after Trump said on Truth Social that he expected to be arrested, with the greatest surge in the final days, after he was indicted.

Fundraising has long been a point of strength for Trump, as he leveraged Facebook and other digital tools to mobilize a base of GOP small-dollar donors. His joint fundraising committee, Save America, raised more than $100 million in the 2021 calendar year when he was not even a federal candidate.



But Trump’s early presidential campaign initially struggled to keep up the momentum. The fourth quarter of 2022 was Save America’s worst in terms of overall fundraising and it spent more on digital fundraising expenses than it raised in December of last year, according to FEC filings.

Even with the surge in revenue linked to the indictment, Trump’s first-quarter numbers still trail where he was at the same time in 2019, when he was running for reelection. That could be due to the fact that donor cash is being spread out among his GOP challengers or that donors are waiting to see how the primary plays out. The campaign of former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, the most prominent other Republican to announce so far, reported raising $5.1 million for her campaign over the three months. Vivek Ramaswany, who has never held office, reported raising around $850,000 from donors.



While Trump has several other political groups, only his campaign was required to file a report with the FEC on Saturday, so the full magnitude of his expenses during the first quarter is not clear. His joint fundraising committee appeared to shift strategy this quarter, including cutting back on text messaging after long sending many users as many as three texts per day.

Trump’s campaign committee still reported spending $3.5 million over the first three months of the year, with payroll occupying the single greatest expense, with roughly two dozen campaign employees on staff. The campaign also paid nearly $500,000 to Tag Air Inc., a Trump-owned company that operates his airplanes.

Other expenses included $122,000 to Advancing Strategies, LLC, which is helmed by Chris LaCivita; more than $80,000 to Georgetown Advisory, the firm founded by former Trump advisor Boris Epshteyn, for legal consulting and communications services; as well as more than $75,000 to Compass Legal Group, headed by former Trump administration lawyer Scott Gast; and $30,000 to Belmont Strategies, a consulting firm headed by Andrew Surabian, an aide to Donald Trump Jr.

The campaign also spent just over $4,000 at Trump’s trademark Mar-a-Lago Club.



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George Santos’ campaign didn’t spend a dime and managed to lose money


Rep. George Santos’s (R-N.Y.) congressional campaign officially lost money during the first quarter of 2023 after it reported having to issue refunds in excess of the contributions it received.

The New York Republican, who has been beleaguered from before he was sworn in after it was revealed he’d fabricated major portions of his biography, raised a scant $5,333.26 during the first three months of the year. But his campaign also refunded $8,352; meaning that he actually took in less than $3,000 than he paid out.

Only one person gave enough to Santos to require that their name be listed on his FEC form. That individual, Sacha Basin, gave $245.95. There was no clear online history for an individual with that name nor is there a record of them previously giving more than $200 to any candidate in the FEC database.

Such fundraising numbers are exceedingly rare and suggest either a candidate who has no actual support from donors or one who is not eyeing an actual re-election bid; or both. Santos has filed paperwork for a re-election bid even as a host of national and local Republicans have urged him not to do so.

Santos had just $25,000 cash on hand at the end of the quarter. That figure came despite having made not a single reported campaign expense during the quarter — a figure that raises questions as to how and whether he has done the basic bookkeeping and paperwork that campaign’s are legally required to do.

Making matters worse for Santos: his campaign reported having $715,000 in debts and obligations that it owed. All of those were owed to Santos himself.



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Republican donor retreat suggests Donald Trump is far from a coronation


NASHVILLE — Donald Trump still gets top billing at this weekend’s exclusive gathering of Republican donors.

But for a full 24 hours before the former president was scheduled to speak on Saturday evening, the Republican National Committee provided a platform for some of Trump's loudest critics.

“Voters wanted to hear about what Republicans were doing to help them fight through 40-year high inflation,” said Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, speaking to donors Saturday morning inside the luxury resort. “Not months and months of debate over whether the 2020 election was stolen.”

Without mentioning Trump’s name, Kemp pinned blame on the former president’s election loss grievances and warned that “not a single swing voter” will vote for a GOP nominee making such claims, calling 2020 “ancient history.”

Kemp, who found himself the object of Trump’s ire after declining to intervene to reverse his Georgia loss in 2020, represents a wing of the Republican Party that has sought to resist Trump’s grasp. So does New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. So does former Vice President Mike Pence. Here — while Trump held his own private meetings out of sight — all three were given prime speaking slots.



That the Republican committee invited dissenters of Trump, even prospective challengers in next year’s presidential primary, points to the fact that even though Trump has first place in the polls, there are still many months of fighting ahead of him. His potential nomination is unlikely to come as a coronation.

The party’s donors are still weighing whether there is a viable alternative to Trump, though there is still no clear consensus on the matter, several said in interviews this weekend.

Standing in the lobby of the Four Seasons on Saturday, Sununu talked about Trump like this: “I don’t think he can win in 2024,” the governor said in an interview. “You don’t have to be angry about it. You don't have to be negative about it. I think you just have to be willing to talk about it and bring real solutions to the table.”

Over breakfast, according to a person in the room and a copy of his speech obtained by POLITICO, Kemp told the donors the Republican nominee “must” be able to win Georgia’s 16 electoral college votes in order to win the White House.

“We have to be able to win a general election,” Kemp said. His comments could apply not only to Trump, but also to the defeat this fall of Trump-backed and scandal-plagued candidates like Herschel Walker, who lost his race even as Kemp defeated a well-funded Democratic challenger by nearly 8 points.

So far, a solution to stopping Trump has proved elusive to donors and operatives who have claimed for years they were trying to do just that.


Other likely primary opponents of Trump, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), were also invited to the RNC gathering, but declined due to scheduling conflicts. Former Arkansas governor and presidential candidate Asa Hutchinson, who called for Trump to drop out of the race post-indictment, and a sunglasses-clad Perry Johnson, a Michigan businessman running for president, also received invitations. Hutchinson and Johnson buzzed around the retreat, but did not have speaking slots.

“They’re sorting through it,” Hutchinson said, referring to how donors here and party activists elsewhere have responded to officials like Kemp, Sununu, himself and others who say the party must avoid a repeat of the 2020 general election. “But they’ve got to hear that message, and it's like realism is coming to the party. And it takes people actually having the courage to say it before people will face that reality.”

Sheltered from the party-tractors circling a honky-tonk district just beyond the doors, some of the GOP’s deepest pocketed supporters gathered inside the luxury hotel Friday and Saturday. There, they hoped to be reassured of the party’s upcoming electoral prospects after a bruising midterm cycle and as an uncertain presidential election looms. Donors sipping white wine in the lobby lounge gawked at the pink-cowgirl-hat-clad bachelorette parties on the sidewalk outside. Inside the hotel Friday afternoon, a couple in town for a country music concert squealed at the sight of Kellyanne Conway, who was among the panelists at the weekend-long donor summit.

Ahead of the get-together and throughout the weekend, a slate of Republican 2024 hopefuls jetted up and down the East Coast and across the Midwest, the mad dash of candidates marking the busiest campaign week to date in the nascent presidential race. And that primary contest, of course, is a fight for what appears to be an increasingly difficult shot at dethroning Trump.

“How in God's name could Donald Trump be portrayed as a victim? But it's being done,” said one Republican donor at the event referencing Trump’s indictment, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, like others there who discussed with POLITICO the unfolding presidential primary.

The donor charged that Trump as the 2024 nominee “would lose even against Biden, which is tragic in its own sense,” but raised doubts about whether the candidates he did like — Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo — had the charisma or ability to push through.

Just minutes after the donor floated Pompeo’s name as a candidate of interest, the former secretary of state announced Friday evening he wouldn’t seek the nomination after all. Pompeo’s decision came after the GOP primary field has gradually swollen — and as Trump has surged in public polling.


But it didn’t stop Trump’s detractors from taking a swing in front of the audience of donors.

In his Friday night address and as donors dined on filet mignon and mashed potatoes, Pence decried “the politics of personality” and “lure of populism unmoored to timeless conservative values,” according to a copy of his prepared remarks. And Trump’s former running-mate described the presidential primary as not just a contest between the candidates involved, but a “conflict of visions” with existential implications.

Pence went after Trump directly on a number of policy areas, from defense and intervention in Ukraine to a ballooning national debt and Trump’s opposition to reforming entitlement programs, referring to him as “our former president.” He criticized Republicans’ waning interest in waging war against marriage equality, and the reticence some now appear to have about further restricting abortion rights — two areas where he finds himself at odds with his former boss.

The uncertain political atmosphere this weekend is much different from the RNC’s donor retreat a year ago, when an optimistic set of top party benefactors in New Orleans were expecting to see a red wave in the 2022 midterm elections. President Joe Biden and Democratic incumbents had approval numbers in the tank, and the GOP had just given Virginia Democrats an unexpected shellacking months earlier.

But the anticipated Republican Senate takeover this fall never materialized — in fact, the party lost a seat in the chamber — and the GOP only narrowly took over House control (or, as Kemp put it Saturday, “barely won the House majority back.”). Republicans lost gubernatorial races in Arizona and Pennsylvania that were widely believed to be winnable, if not for nominating candidates who espoused Trump’s stolen-election claims and other conspiracy theories that proved unpopular with the general electorate.

As the party elite gathered this time, any sense of optimism about Republicans’ electoral prospects was much less palpable.


Another donor, who said he was no diehard Trump fan, questioned not just DeSantis’ ability to break through in the primary but whether he could win in a general election. Calling the recent indictment against Trump “jet fuel” in the primary, the donor — like others here — said he was nearly resolved to the fact that Trump will be the party’s 2024 nominee.

Kemp in his speech outlined the policies he ran on to cruise to reelection as governor, a race he won against one of the Democratic Party’s top stars. Rather than moving to the middle on policy, Kemp in his campaign still touted deeply conservative measures like a six-week abortion ban, approving the permitless carry of handguns and banning certain lessons in schools about racism.

But throughout his speech, Kemp chided Republicans who have become “distracted” by claims about stolen elections and, more recently, Trump’s current and pending legal cases in New York and Georgia, asserting that such conversations only help Democrats.

Johnson, the Michigan candidate not currently registering in presidential polls, carried a stack of his book, “Two Cents to Save America,” around the hotel lobby restaurant on Saturday. He laughed recounting his takeaways from conversations with donors this weekend, as well as from a panel of RNC advisory council members Friday evening.

“Obviously, they know Trump lost,” Johnson said. “Even though we may have had an irregular situation in elections, they're saying right on stage, it hasn't changed. We're going to continue to have mass mail ballots. And if the Republicans want to win, they have to live under the new reality.”



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