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Sunday 16 April 2023

Nikki Haley’s fuzzy fundraising math


When Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign announced its first quarterly fundraising haul earlier this month, the figure sounded impressive.

The former U.N. ambassador’s campaign said it had raised $11 million between her mid-February launch and the end of the quarter on March 31. It got that figure by saying Haley’s campaign had $5.1 million in receipts, along with $4.4 million for Team Stand for America, a joint fundraising committee, and $1.2 million for Stand for America PAC, a Haley-launched leadership PAC.

But after Haley filed her first-quarter report to the Federal Election Commission late Saturday, an altogether different story has emerged. Her campaign’s math didn’t add up.

What Haley’s campaign and two affiliated groups actually raised was about $8.3 million. The discrepancy between the Haley campaign’s public statements and the numbers on the filings appear to be a case of double-counting.

Haley’s campaign alone raised $5.1 million. But $1.8 million of that total came in a transfer from Team Stand for America, and SFA Fund, Inc., a hybrid PAC that can send limited amounts of money directly to candidates but is prohibited from coordinating its independent expenditures with the campaign. But that’s not the only double counting that appears to have happened. Haley’s leadership PAC also received a $886,000 transfer from her joint fundraising committee — a total that the campaign seeks to count twice in the quarterly total across all three vehicles.

The web of campaign finance laws around various committees is complicated, especially after the Supreme Court’s Citizens United case last decade. And in a statement, Haley’s campaign insisted that it was simply sharing the three vehicles’ total receipts, without sharing that those figures included transfers between them.

“We reported $11 million, the sum of entities,” Ken Farnaso, Haley’s campaign press secretary, wrote in an email, adding that other presidential candidates also have multiple fundraising vehicles.

Had they counted those transfers only once, Haley’s $11 million becomes about $8.3 million. That’s still a strong sum for her first six weeks as a candidate, but it’s not quite what was touted in the media over the past two weeks.

As a direct comparison, when former President Donald Trump’s campaign shared its first-quarter fundraising numbers with POLITICO, it said he raised nearly $19 million across both the campaign (which raised $14.4 million) and his joint fundraising committee ($18.8 million), which transferred $14 million to the campaign.

Using the same campaign’s methodology, Trump would have raised more than $32 million — a figure far greater than his actual haul.

That said, there are examples of Trump’s campaign fudging the math, too. Ahead of the last quarterly deadline, in January, some media outlets reported the Trump campaign claimed it raised $9.5 million from the launch of his third bid for the presidency — even though the actual number after the filings should have been closer to $5 million, since it also included transfers from joint fundraising committee into other committees.



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Trump’s fundraising was lagging. Then he said an indictment was imminent.


Former President Donald Trump’s latest campaign finance filing showed how his indictment spurred a last-minute fundraising surge. It also showed he used that money to pay close advisors and top aides while some went to his own properties and businesses.

The former president’s campaign raised $14.5 million during the first quarter of 2023, according to a first-quarter filing with the Federal Election Commission late Saturday. The filing backs up the notion that Trump experienced a fundraising surge linked to talk of the indictment: more than 30 percent of his quarterly fundraising from itemized donors came in during the final 12 days of the quarter, after Trump said on Truth Social that he expected to be arrested, with the greatest surge in the final days, after he was indicted.

Fundraising has long been a point of strength for Trump, as he leveraged Facebook and other digital tools to mobilize a base of GOP small-dollar donors. His joint fundraising committee, Save America, raised more than $100 million in the 2021 calendar year when he was not even a federal candidate.



But Trump’s early presidential campaign initially struggled to keep up the momentum. The fourth quarter of 2022 was Save America’s worst in terms of overall fundraising and it spent more on digital fundraising expenses than it raised in December of last year, according to FEC filings.

Even with the surge in revenue linked to the indictment, Trump’s first-quarter numbers still trail where he was at the same time in 2019, when he was running for reelection. That could be due to the fact that donor cash is being spread out among his GOP challengers or that donors are waiting to see how the primary plays out. The campaign of former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, the most prominent other Republican to announce so far, reported raising $5.1 million for her campaign over the three months. Vivek Ramaswany, who has never held office, reported raising around $850,000 from donors.



While Trump has several other political groups, only his campaign was required to file a report with the FEC on Saturday, so the full magnitude of his expenses during the first quarter is not clear. His joint fundraising committee appeared to shift strategy this quarter, including cutting back on text messaging after long sending many users as many as three texts per day.

Trump’s campaign committee still reported spending $3.5 million over the first three months of the year, with payroll occupying the single greatest expense, with roughly two dozen campaign employees on staff. The campaign also paid nearly $500,000 to Tag Air Inc., a Trump-owned company that operates his airplanes.

Other expenses included $122,000 to Advancing Strategies, LLC, which is helmed by Chris LaCivita; more than $80,000 to Georgetown Advisory, the firm founded by former Trump advisor Boris Epshteyn, for legal consulting and communications services; as well as more than $75,000 to Compass Legal Group, headed by former Trump administration lawyer Scott Gast; and $30,000 to Belmont Strategies, a consulting firm headed by Andrew Surabian, an aide to Donald Trump Jr.

The campaign also spent just over $4,000 at Trump’s trademark Mar-a-Lago Club.



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George Santos’ campaign didn’t spend a dime and managed to lose money


Rep. George Santos’s (R-N.Y.) congressional campaign officially lost money during the first quarter of 2023 after it reported having to issue refunds in excess of the contributions it received.

The New York Republican, who has been beleaguered from before he was sworn in after it was revealed he’d fabricated major portions of his biography, raised a scant $5,333.26 during the first three months of the year. But his campaign also refunded $8,352; meaning that he actually took in less than $3,000 than he paid out.

Only one person gave enough to Santos to require that their name be listed on his FEC form. That individual, Sacha Basin, gave $245.95. There was no clear online history for an individual with that name nor is there a record of them previously giving more than $200 to any candidate in the FEC database.

Such fundraising numbers are exceedingly rare and suggest either a candidate who has no actual support from donors or one who is not eyeing an actual re-election bid; or both. Santos has filed paperwork for a re-election bid even as a host of national and local Republicans have urged him not to do so.

Santos had just $25,000 cash on hand at the end of the quarter. That figure came despite having made not a single reported campaign expense during the quarter — a figure that raises questions as to how and whether he has done the basic bookkeeping and paperwork that campaign’s are legally required to do.

Making matters worse for Santos: his campaign reported having $715,000 in debts and obligations that it owed. All of those were owed to Santos himself.



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Republican donor retreat suggests Donald Trump is far from a coronation


NASHVILLE — Donald Trump still gets top billing at this weekend’s exclusive gathering of Republican donors.

But for a full 24 hours before the former president was scheduled to speak on Saturday evening, the Republican National Committee provided a platform for some of Trump's loudest critics.

“Voters wanted to hear about what Republicans were doing to help them fight through 40-year high inflation,” said Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, speaking to donors Saturday morning inside the luxury resort. “Not months and months of debate over whether the 2020 election was stolen.”

Without mentioning Trump’s name, Kemp pinned blame on the former president’s election loss grievances and warned that “not a single swing voter” will vote for a GOP nominee making such claims, calling 2020 “ancient history.”

Kemp, who found himself the object of Trump’s ire after declining to intervene to reverse his Georgia loss in 2020, represents a wing of the Republican Party that has sought to resist Trump’s grasp. So does New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. So does former Vice President Mike Pence. Here — while Trump held his own private meetings out of sight — all three were given prime speaking slots.



That the Republican committee invited dissenters of Trump, even prospective challengers in next year’s presidential primary, points to the fact that even though Trump has first place in the polls, there are still many months of fighting ahead of him. His potential nomination is unlikely to come as a coronation.

The party’s donors are still weighing whether there is a viable alternative to Trump, though there is still no clear consensus on the matter, several said in interviews this weekend.

Standing in the lobby of the Four Seasons on Saturday, Sununu talked about Trump like this: “I don’t think he can win in 2024,” the governor said in an interview. “You don’t have to be angry about it. You don't have to be negative about it. I think you just have to be willing to talk about it and bring real solutions to the table.”

Over breakfast, according to a person in the room and a copy of his speech obtained by POLITICO, Kemp told the donors the Republican nominee “must” be able to win Georgia’s 16 electoral college votes in order to win the White House.

“We have to be able to win a general election,” Kemp said. His comments could apply not only to Trump, but also to the defeat this fall of Trump-backed and scandal-plagued candidates like Herschel Walker, who lost his race even as Kemp defeated a well-funded Democratic challenger by nearly 8 points.

So far, a solution to stopping Trump has proved elusive to donors and operatives who have claimed for years they were trying to do just that.


Other likely primary opponents of Trump, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), were also invited to the RNC gathering, but declined due to scheduling conflicts. Former Arkansas governor and presidential candidate Asa Hutchinson, who called for Trump to drop out of the race post-indictment, and a sunglasses-clad Perry Johnson, a Michigan businessman running for president, also received invitations. Hutchinson and Johnson buzzed around the retreat, but did not have speaking slots.

“They’re sorting through it,” Hutchinson said, referring to how donors here and party activists elsewhere have responded to officials like Kemp, Sununu, himself and others who say the party must avoid a repeat of the 2020 general election. “But they’ve got to hear that message, and it's like realism is coming to the party. And it takes people actually having the courage to say it before people will face that reality.”

Sheltered from the party-tractors circling a honky-tonk district just beyond the doors, some of the GOP’s deepest pocketed supporters gathered inside the luxury hotel Friday and Saturday. There, they hoped to be reassured of the party’s upcoming electoral prospects after a bruising midterm cycle and as an uncertain presidential election looms. Donors sipping white wine in the lobby lounge gawked at the pink-cowgirl-hat-clad bachelorette parties on the sidewalk outside. Inside the hotel Friday afternoon, a couple in town for a country music concert squealed at the sight of Kellyanne Conway, who was among the panelists at the weekend-long donor summit.

Ahead of the get-together and throughout the weekend, a slate of Republican 2024 hopefuls jetted up and down the East Coast and across the Midwest, the mad dash of candidates marking the busiest campaign week to date in the nascent presidential race. And that primary contest, of course, is a fight for what appears to be an increasingly difficult shot at dethroning Trump.

“How in God's name could Donald Trump be portrayed as a victim? But it's being done,” said one Republican donor at the event referencing Trump’s indictment, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, like others there who discussed with POLITICO the unfolding presidential primary.

The donor charged that Trump as the 2024 nominee “would lose even against Biden, which is tragic in its own sense,” but raised doubts about whether the candidates he did like — Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo — had the charisma or ability to push through.

Just minutes after the donor floated Pompeo’s name as a candidate of interest, the former secretary of state announced Friday evening he wouldn’t seek the nomination after all. Pompeo’s decision came after the GOP primary field has gradually swollen — and as Trump has surged in public polling.


But it didn’t stop Trump’s detractors from taking a swing in front of the audience of donors.

In his Friday night address and as donors dined on filet mignon and mashed potatoes, Pence decried “the politics of personality” and “lure of populism unmoored to timeless conservative values,” according to a copy of his prepared remarks. And Trump’s former running-mate described the presidential primary as not just a contest between the candidates involved, but a “conflict of visions” with existential implications.

Pence went after Trump directly on a number of policy areas, from defense and intervention in Ukraine to a ballooning national debt and Trump’s opposition to reforming entitlement programs, referring to him as “our former president.” He criticized Republicans’ waning interest in waging war against marriage equality, and the reticence some now appear to have about further restricting abortion rights — two areas where he finds himself at odds with his former boss.

The uncertain political atmosphere this weekend is much different from the RNC’s donor retreat a year ago, when an optimistic set of top party benefactors in New Orleans were expecting to see a red wave in the 2022 midterm elections. President Joe Biden and Democratic incumbents had approval numbers in the tank, and the GOP had just given Virginia Democrats an unexpected shellacking months earlier.

But the anticipated Republican Senate takeover this fall never materialized — in fact, the party lost a seat in the chamber — and the GOP only narrowly took over House control (or, as Kemp put it Saturday, “barely won the House majority back.”). Republicans lost gubernatorial races in Arizona and Pennsylvania that were widely believed to be winnable, if not for nominating candidates who espoused Trump’s stolen-election claims and other conspiracy theories that proved unpopular with the general electorate.

As the party elite gathered this time, any sense of optimism about Republicans’ electoral prospects was much less palpable.


Another donor, who said he was no diehard Trump fan, questioned not just DeSantis’ ability to break through in the primary but whether he could win in a general election. Calling the recent indictment against Trump “jet fuel” in the primary, the donor — like others here — said he was nearly resolved to the fact that Trump will be the party’s 2024 nominee.

Kemp in his speech outlined the policies he ran on to cruise to reelection as governor, a race he won against one of the Democratic Party’s top stars. Rather than moving to the middle on policy, Kemp in his campaign still touted deeply conservative measures like a six-week abortion ban, approving the permitless carry of handguns and banning certain lessons in schools about racism.

But throughout his speech, Kemp chided Republicans who have become “distracted” by claims about stolen elections and, more recently, Trump’s current and pending legal cases in New York and Georgia, asserting that such conversations only help Democrats.

Johnson, the Michigan candidate not currently registering in presidential polls, carried a stack of his book, “Two Cents to Save America,” around the hotel lobby restaurant on Saturday. He laughed recounting his takeaways from conversations with donors this weekend, as well as from a panel of RNC advisory council members Friday evening.

“Obviously, they know Trump lost,” Johnson said. “Even though we may have had an irregular situation in elections, they're saying right on stage, it hasn't changed. We're going to continue to have mass mail ballots. And if the Republicans want to win, they have to live under the new reality.”



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Saturday 15 April 2023

Here’s what the leaked US war files tell us about Europe

Special forces on the ground. Undisclosed arms transfers. The documents offer a snapshot of Europe’s involvement in the war.

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As Joe Biden roams Ireland, Hunter stays by his side



For four days, a Biden traveled across Northern Ireland and Ireland, meeting with the nations’ top dignitaries, waving to the crowds, and sentimentally retracing his family’s lineage throughout the Emerald Isle.

His father, Joe, was also there.

If ever there were a question as to Hunter Biden’s whereabouts, the answer this week was obvious: He was overseas, glued to President Joe Biden’s side during the entirety of a whirlwind trip that mixed global diplomacy with a sprawling exploration of his ancestral roots.

There was Hunter, chatting with U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on the tarmac in Belfast. There he was again in Dublin, huddled in the rain with Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar. He was in County Louth, absorbing the sights. In a local Dundalk market, he surveyed the menu, interrupting his dad’s conversation to suggest he may order something.

Hunter was at the Irish president’s residence, shaking hands and telling its occupant, Michael D. Higgins, that he was “a fan of your poetry.” He was in the audience at Ireland’s Parliament as Biden addressed a joint session of the legislature. Later that night, he attended a banquet thrown in his father’s honor, mingling with Irish ministers before dining with the widow of Nobel Prize-winning poet Seamus Heaney.

For much of Biden’s presidency, Hunter has been at the center of controversy and the subject of heightened scrutiny. He is a fascination of the conservative mediasphere and a target of federal investigators and Republicans in Congress. But an ocean away, he was mostly just a son and close travel companion, tagging along with his aunt Valerie Biden Owen.

It was, ostensibly, a business trip for his dad. But the president himself explained that he’d decided to take family members “who hadn’t been there before.” And by all appearances, Hunter thoroughly enjoyed the jaunt.

He served as a particular point of pride for Biden, who has refused to distance himself from his son even as the attention on Hunter’s foreign business dealings, the “laptop from hell,” and his personal struggle threatened to cast a cloud over the administration's agenda.

“I’m here with my sister, Valerie, and my youngest son, Hunter Biden,” the president told residents at a pub in Dundalk. “Stand up, guys. I’m proud of you.”


It’s not unusual for a president’s family members to join trips abroad, and Hunter did not sit in on Biden's private meetings with heads of state. But his ubiquity nonetheless (and unsurprisingly) gained traction in conservative circles.

“Hunter Biden should not be on foreign trips with Joe Biden while under federal investigation,” Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.)tweeted. “Is this really the image America wants to project to the world?”

The White House dismissed criticism of Hunter’s involvement in the trip. "Historically family members of Presidents and First Ladies have frequently joined them during international travel," a spokesperson said. "Current practices are consistent with those used by prior Administrations." The spokesperson also confirmed that Hunter, as well as Biden Owen, were paying their own way.

At times, Hunter’s presence was something of a nuisance to the media on the ground. When Biden arrived in Dundalk, Hunter hopped out of the Beast before the president, inadvertently blocking reporters’ view of his father as they greeted the crowd and leaving the pool photographers with plenty of clear shots of Hunter, but not nearly as many of Biden.

Though he may not have had any formal role in Biden's entourage, Hunter did find ways to make himself useful. He held an umbrella at one point to shield Biden from the rain. At a noisy firehouse meet-and-greet with embassy workers,he helped moderate a brief Q&A between Biden and some children. And importantly for a president with a tendency to get off schedule, he sought to gently steer things back on task, though not always with much success.

“You’re supposed to do the rope line, Dad,” Hunter reminded Biden, as he chatted away with the kids. “Just to say hi to everybody.”



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Joe Biden and Ireland: A love story


DUNDALK, Ireland — They came by the thousands, crammed several lines deep along the narrow sidewalks, clutching flags and braving rain and bitter cold in hopes of catching a glimpse of the most Irish of American presidents.

And for a moment, it seemed as if Joe Biden might greet every single one of them.

Wearing a blue cap and an ear-to-ear smile, Biden lingered in the main thoroughfare of this county town along Ireland’s eastern coast. He shook hands, posed for photos and soaked in the warm embrace that its residents had prepared for a president many refer to simply as “Joe.”

“When you’re here, you wonder why anyone would ever want to leave,” Biden marveled soon after his arrival at the Windsor Bar and Restaurant. A capacity crowd had waited for hours to see him in the rustic pub. “Coming here feels like coming home.”

When presidents travel abroad, they are traditionally tight, focused affairs calibrated with a specific goal in mind: To advance the White House’s interests and shape the place they will soon leave behind. But for three days in Ireland, as Biden roamed the countryside by motorcade with his sister Valerie and son Hunter in tow, the president seemed content to exist within it.

He met dignitaries and townspeople. He toasted his Irish ancestors, the Irish people, Irish Americans and even the “quite a few,” he said, “who wish they were lucky enough to be Irish.”

He took a selfie with nationalist politician and alleged former Irish Republican Army member Gerry Adams, as well as with an Irish reporter and nearly anyone else who wanted one. He kissed babies and had a close encounter with a sliotar.

He butchered the name of New Zealand's famed rugby team — badly. At one point he tried, unsuccessfully, to make friends with the Irish president’s dog. In a surprise to nobody, he quoted at least three different Irish poets but may have quoted his Grandpa Finnegan even more.

And all that came before Friday evening, when Biden traveled west across the country to County Mayo, where he was slated to recall “the history and hope and the heartbreak” of his ancestors in front of an estimated 20,000 gathered at a 19th-century cathedral along the River Moy.

Just hours before his remarks, Biden visited the Knock Shrine, a pilgrimage site for Catholics made all the more significant by a chance meeting with the priest who administered last rites to his late son, Beau, reportedly bringing Biden to tears.



Biden had come to Ireland to reaffirm its close relationship with the U.S. — and to reaffirm his own personal relationship with a place he credits for shaping him. It was here that the criticisms he faces at home seemed to fade away: His age didn’t make him old, it provided him wisdom. His gaffes didn’t make him shaky, they gave him charm.

Biden has made no secret of his deep fascination with his ancestral origins. And since visiting Ireland as vice president to trace his lineage, he'd eagerly sought a reason to come back. The White House found its justification in the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday agreement that largely ended sectarian violence in Northern Ireland — a U.S. brokered deal that’s served as an integral element of the island’s tight relationship with America.

Yet Biden spent only a handful of hours in Northern Ireland before jetting off to his ancestral homeland. Combined with the dearth of policy announcements or apparent progress on political priorities, the move raised questions over whether the trip was, as one reporter put it, “a taxpayer-funded family reunion.”

The White House rejected the characterization, pointing to his speeches and meetings with Irish and U.K. leaders. Biden, though, appeared otherwise determined not to let thorny political demands intrude too much on his mutual lovefest with the people of Ireland.

The president has answered only a single question unrelated to his visit, on the search for the Pentagon document leaker. The most substantive answer he gave all week to any query came in response to the child who had asked about the key to success — prompting Biden to launch into a winding and often-told anecdote about the late conservative Sen. Jesse Helms and the importance of not judging people’s motives.

"That's a long answer to a real quick question," he conceded, well after the child had lost interest.

At times, it was tough to tell where Biden as president ended and Biden as tourist began. His tour through the country was sentimental and joyful. During a visit to Carlingford Castle, he peered across the water through gathering fog, chatting quietly with a local guide enlisted to bring him through the last Irish landmark Biden’s great-great-grandfather saw before embarking for America over 170 years ago.

“It feels wonderful,” Biden said of his emotions upon visiting the site, as a bagpipe and drum ensemble prepared to strike up an original piece entitled: “A Biden Return.”



In Dundalk, a short ride from the castle through the County Louth where his Finnegan ancestors once lived, Biden bantered with workers at a local market, debating which food and souvenirs to buy. (He left, the town paper later reported, with a bounty: Lemon meringue, chocolate eclairs, bread and butter pudding, pear and almond cake, and a mug with an image of a dog on it.)

And on Thursday, as he became the fourth U.S. president to address a joint session of Ireland’s Parliament, Biden paused to recognize the familial significance of what he would term “one of the great honors of my career.”

“Well mom,” he said, looking skyward, “you said it would happen.”

In between speeches and state dinners, the scenes at times bordered on chaos. Throngs of well-wishers lined Biden’s routes, some stationing themselves mere inches off the road as the motorcade whipped by. Others gathered on highway overpasses in the driving rain, waving Irish and American flags.

As Biden stopped in local towns and businesses, the tight spaces and swelling crowds caused visible alarm among his Secret Service detail. “A security nightmare,” one agent muttered at one point.

But Biden, basking in the middle of it all, seemed unconcerned.

“I wish our mom, Catherine Eugenia Finnegan Biden, were here today. She’d be so damn proud,” he said in the Windsor Bar, surrounded by a mix of relatives, Irish officials and local residents. “Louth held such a special place in her heart, it really did.”

As the trip wore on and the outside world fell away, Biden appeared to feel increasingly at home — a sentiment he expressed so frequently that some reporters and aides joked he might actually stay.

“I don’t know why the hell my ancestors left here. It’s beautiful,” he said on Wednesday.

“I only wish I could stay longer,” he told Irish lawmakers on Thursday.

“I’m not going home,” he said, admiring the Irish president’s residence.

Biden, however reluctantly, would eventually have to head home, set as he was to depart the Irish coast late Friday for his family’s adopted shores of Delaware. But well before then, he made permanent his intention to return.

“Your feet will bring you to where your heart is,” Biden wrote in the guestbook at the Irish president’s residence, in reference to a line he attributed to William Butler Yeats that he said his grandfather often quoted.

It was a slightly more poetic way of reiterating a pledge that he’d already made at the Windsor Bar, before striding back into the cold, where the crowds stood eager and waiting: “The bad news for all of you is, we’ll be back,” Biden said. “There’s no way to keep us out.”



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