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Tuesday 14 March 2023

McConnell discharged from hospital with rib fracture


Mitch McConnell was discharged from the hospital on Monday and is recovering from his concussion, according to a spokesperson for the Senate minority leader.

Communications Director David Popp said in a statement that McConnell's medical team discovered he suffered a "minor rib fracture" after his fall at a D.C. hotel last week, for which he's also receiving treatment. But the Kentucky Republican's concussion recovery was “proceeding well."

“At the advice of his physician, the next step will be a period of physical therapy at an inpatient rehabilitation facility before he returns home,” Popp said.

The statement did not disclose when McConnell will return to the Senate.

McConnell had fallen at a private dinner eventheld at the Waldorf Astoria last Wednesday, where a Super PAC aligned with McConnell, the Senate Leadership Fund, had hosted an event that evening.

The Kentucky Republican, who is 81 and had polio as a child, had previously fractured his shoulder back in 2019 after tripping on his patio at home.



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China's Xi to meet Putin in Moscow, possibly speak to Zelenskyy

The Chinese leader reportedly plans to talk to Ukraine's president, though Kyiv wouldn't confirm or deny.

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Barney Frank blames crypto panic for his bank's collapse. Elizabeth Warren blames Trump.


Former Rep. Barney Frank and Sen. Elizabeth Warren — two key architects of the post-2008 system of Wall Street regulation — are at odds over what's dragging down banks once again.

Frank, who chaired the House Financial Services Committee in the wake of the global financial crisis and wrote sweeping new rules enacted in 2010, most recently served on the board of New York's Signature Bank, which regulators shut down Sunday.

From his front-row seat, he blames Signature's failure on a panic that began with last year's cryptocurrency collapse — his bank was one of few that served the industry — compounded by a run triggered by the failure of tech-focused Silicon Valley Bank late last week. Frank disputes that a bipartisan regulatory rollback signed into law by former President Donald Trump in 2018 had anything to do with it, even if it was driven by a desire to ease regulation of mid-size and regional banks like his own.

"I don't think that had any impact," Frank said in an interview. "They hadn't stopped examining banks."

But Warren, a fellow Massachusetts Democrat who designed landmark consumer safeguards that ended up in Frank's 2010 banking law, is placing the blame firmly on the Trump-era changes that relaxed oversight of some banks and says Signature is a prime example of the fallout.

"Had Congress and the Federal Reserve not rolled back the stricter oversight, SVB and Signature would have been subject to stronger liquidity and capital requirements to withstand financial shocks," Warren wrote Monday in a New York Times op-ed.

The rift between Frank and Warren is just a preview of what's to come as Democrats sort out positions on how to respond to the latest banking crisis, which led to a weekend bailout of depositors at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature. Some like Warren want Washington restore the tougher regulations that were rolled back in 2018. Some Democrats, like Frank, say the 2018 law isn't the problem. A number of moderate Democrats still in Congress helped write the 2018 legislation, including those facing reelection in 2024.

Frank, who served on Signature's board since 2015, said his bank was in "good shape" but was hit with a run generated by “the nervousness and beyond nervousness from SVB and crypto.” The bank’s digital assets business made it the “unfortunate victim of the panic that really goes back to FTX," the cryptocurrency exchange that failed last year.



Frank said other lenders were in trouble the last few days, with the Federal Home Loan Bank telling Signature when it applied for money on Friday that “they didn’t have enough to go around because they were getting so many requests.”

Frank said Signature, now in the hands of regulators, will probably sell for close to what the bank’s leaders believed it’s worth.

"The FDIC and the state of New York looked at things and made their decision," Frank said. "Frankly, I was surprised by it. They apparently had a more negative view of our solvency."

A Signature spokesperson declined to comment on what happened with the bank. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said Monday that federal and state regulators “saw that a run on a regional bank could pose a great risk to our stability."

The 2018 law that eased banking regulations advanced with a degree of encouragement from Frank, who was on Signature's board at the time. He was a proponent of raising a $50 billion asset threshold in his 2010 law that triggered stricter oversight.

Congress ended up changing the framework so that banks would be eligible for greater regulatory scrutiny once they reached $100 billion in assets and then automatically face the toughest regulation at $250 billion.

Signature was poised to be a major beneficiary of the change, with assets of about $44 billion in 2018. It had $110 billion in assets as of this weekend.

Frank said Sunday that he didn't think changing the threshold to $250 billion from $50 billion "had any impact."

"I think, if it hadn't been for FTX and the extreme nervousness about crypto, that this wouldn't have happened — even to SVB or to us," he said. "And that wasn't something that could have been anticipated by regulators."


Warren is now holding up Signature — and SVB — as a reason why Congress and the regulators should reverse any light-touch bank supervision triggered by the 2018 law. Silicon Valley Bank had assets of about $209 billion when it failed, up from about $57 billion at the end of 2018.

"SVB and Signature would have been subject to stronger liquidity and capital requirements to withstand financial shocks," she said in the New York Times. "They would have been required to conduct regular stress tests to expose their vulnerabilities and shore up their businesses. But because those requirements were repealed, when an old-fashioned bank run hit SVB‌, the‌ bank couldn’t withstand the pressure — and Signature’s collapse was close behind."

Frank and Warren appear to be converging on one issue — support for greater depositor protections. Federal deposit insurance is capped at $250,000, but the Biden administration and regulators have essentially pledged to back all deposits at the failed banks.

Warren said in her New York Times op-ed that regulators should reform deposit insurance so that during this crisis and in the future "businesses that are trying to make payroll and otherwise conduct ordinary financial transactions are fully covered — while ensuring the cost of protecting outsized depositors is borne by those financial institutions that pose the greatest risk."

Frank said he felt vindicated by the government’s decision to guarantee all deposits because, when served in the House, he wanted to pass legislation that would expand deposit insurance, especially for businesses.

He wants Congress to revive that idea and look at what's a reasonable amount to help cover payrolls — in his view tens of millions of dollars.

Had the government announced its deposit backstop on Friday, “we wouldn’t have had the problem.”



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The new headache weighing on the Fed's Jerome Powell


Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suddenly has a major new concern to weigh in his year-long battle against inflation: a string of bank failures.

The spectacular collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, along with two other lenders, has sparked fears about broader financial instability in the U.S. and abroad. That could upend the Fed's efforts to curb inflation by raising interest rates at the fastest pace in four decades.

Anxiety over rising rates — which played a role in Silicon Valley Bank's death— is ratcheting up. As a result, Fed officials might be reluctant to act too aggressively even as they worry that inflation is not slowing enough, as the latest release of the Consumer Price Index on Tuesday is likely to show.

The stakes are enormous: If the central bank holds back on rate hikes, that could lead inflation to stay higher for longer, further eating into Americans' paychecks. If it forges ahead, it could risk triggering more financial turmoil.

“Now, they’re in a position where if they hike [half a percentage point] at the next meeting, that’s gasoline on the fire,” said John Fagan, who led the Treasury Department's markets room from 2014 to 2018.

Economists at Goldman Sachs on Sunday night already said they “no longer expect [the Fed] to deliver a rate hike … with considerable uncertainty about the path beyond March.”

Fed policymakers next meet on March 21-22, where they have been widely expected to raise rates for the ninth straight time.

Powell faced sharp criticism last week from progressives like Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Ayanna Pressley, both Massachusetts Democrats who blasted him over the Fed’s willingness to allow joblessness to rise by cranking up rates. Their allies are now starting to cite financial stability concerns as yet another reason the Fed should pause.

“The Fed’s actions to fight increasing inflation will need to be materially adjusted, which it should be anyway because inflation is driven by many factors that are beyond the Fed’s control,” Dennis Kelleher, head of financial reform advocacy group Better Markets, said in a statement.

SVB's sudden fall adds a new wrinkle to the already complicated inflation fight that may determine whether the U.S. falls into a recession. Higher costs have been fed by supply chain snarls, record amounts of government spending, Russia’s war in Ukraine and a reopening of the economy that sparked a burst of activity — all of which have emboldened companies to raise prices.

Lawmakers have remained largely deferential to Powell’s efforts to restrict the economy’s growth to bring down inflation. They're waiting to see whether the Fed can achieve a so-called soft landing, where price spikes cool without a significant economic slump.

Now, after SVB’s failure, which required aggressive action by the government to avoid wider financial panic, the Fed chief might have to tread more carefully.

Former Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo, who was in charge of regulations at the central bank under President Barack Obama, said if there are signs that loan officers are pulling back, that would naturally clamp down on growth even without a move from the Fed.

“You might have an even greater contractionary effect by raising rates more,” he said. “And the converse of that is, maybe you justify [a smaller rate hike] at a particular meeting, or standing pat.”

“I’m not talking about the March meeting necessarily,” he added. “You’d need to do some more analysis before you had a measure of confidence that’s what’s happening, but if you did think that’s what’s happening, absolutely it would affect your monetary policy decision-making.”

Heading into the rate decision this month, much will depend on conditions in financial markets.

Said Goldman Sachs's economists: “While we agree that more tightening will likely be needed to address the inflation problem if financial stability concerns abate, we think Fed officials are likely to prioritize financial stability for now, viewing it as the immediate problem and high inflation as a medium-term problem."

Adding to the confusion is that Fed officials have now entered their pre-meeting “blackout” period, where they don’t discuss interest rate policy for a week and a half before a decision. Investors will have to parse what they know about Powell’s approach to managing risk and weigh that alongside fresh inflation data coming out this week.

Efforts by the Fed and FDIC to reassure Americans that they have access to their money might help take some of the immediate pressure off.

“Aggressive action to tame run-risk should also free up the Fed to pursue the monetary policy it thinks is appropriate to manage inflation rather than be trapped by … fear of amplifying financial sector stress,” said Krishna Guha, a former New York Fed official who is now vice chairman at investment firm Evercore ISI.



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Monday 13 March 2023

China leaves EU playing catchup in race for raw materials

Europe needs minerals like lithium for batteries to power its clean energy future. Beijing is decades ahead.

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France pushes protectionism in Ukraine defense plan

The European Parliament is divided on whether access to half a billion euros for arms production should be limited to the EU.

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'Navalny,' film about dissident fighting Kremlin, wins Academy Award


NEW YORK — “Navalny,” a look at a Russian opposition leader following an attempt on his life, on Sunday night won the Oscar for best documentary feature.

Director Daniel Roher’s portrait of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny has shadowy operatives, truth-seeking journalists, conspiracy theories and Soviet-era poisons. It is a film with obvious political poignance following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Roher accepted his statuette by saying he dedicated it to Navalny and to all political prisoners around the world. “Alexei, the world has not forgotten your vital message to us all: We must not be afraid to oppose dictators and authoritarianism wherever it rears its head. Navalny’s wife, Yulia, said: “Alexei, I am dreaming of the day you will be free and our country will be free. Stay strong, my love.”

Navalny has for many years been a headache for Russian President Vladimir Putin. He’s released numerous reports about corruption in Russia and the Putin administration and become a popular and rallying figure among like-minded Russians.

Roher was able to sit down with Navalny during his brief stay in Berlin in 2020 and early 2021 as he was recovering from being poisoned and seeking the truth behind the unsuccessful murder attempt. The media has called Navalny the Kremlin’s fiercest critic. And he is seemingly undaunted by the intimidation and the arrests he’s endured.

The film was a hit at the Sundance Film Festival, where it won both the documentary audience award and the festival favorite award.

“Navalny” beat the other documentary nominees: “All That Breathes’; “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”; “Fire of Love”; and “A House Made of Splinters.”



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