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Tuesday 28 March 2023

Ted Cruz helped kill Biden's FAA nominee. Now he has thoughts about a replacement.


The collapse of President Joe Biden's effort to fill the top job at the Federal Aviation Administration leaves the administration starting from scratch with an agency that has lacked a Senate-confirmed leader for nearly a year.

But a Republican lawmaker who helped sink Biden's nominee says the president has an obvious solution — hand the job to the acting chief who has been running the agency since April.

Acting Administrator Billy Nolen, a former airline pilot who led the FAA's safety office, has already gotten a public endorsement from Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who predicted during a hearing this month that he would "get confirmed quickly.” Some people in the aviation industry have also called Nolen an obvious choice, given his experience as a pilot and safety executive and his pledges to address a recent spike in near-collisions among planes.

On the other hand, Nolen would not represent the clean break from industry dominance at the FAA that Biden had promised with his original nominee, Denver airport CEO Phil Washington. Washington withdrew his nomination on Saturday, following attacks from Cruz and other critics who called him too inexperienced.

The questions about Washington's successor offer Biden a fundamental choice in what direction to take the FAA, an agency that has presided over an era of unprecedented safety in air travel but has also faced doubts about its oversight of companies such as Boeing, whose 737 MAX jetliner killed 346 people in crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia in 2018 and 2019.

The White House hasn't announced any plans for a new FAA nominee and did not respond to a request for comment Monday. On Saturday, the White House said it would move quickly to nominate another candidate.

Cruz led the opposition to Washington as the top Republican on the Senate Commerce Committee, which vets FAA nominations. But Washington had also faced doubts from non-GOP lawmakers on the panel.

Those include Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), who said in a statement Monday that Biden "should quickly nominate a permanent FAA Administrator with the necessary, substantial aviation safety experience and expertise." Sinema and Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) had both declined to declare a stance on Washington before Commerce Chair Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) postponed a committee vote on his nomination last week.

Cantwell, who gave a tepid reaction to Washington's nomination when it was first announced, spent months avoiding taking a position on him. She finally came out in support of him early this year, arguing that the FAA needed a fresh, independent voice.

Now, if Nolen gets the nod, Cantwell would face the possibility of advancing a new nominee who is engrained in the aviation industry. Besides being a pilot, Nolen spent time at the aviation industry's trade group Airlines for America after a long career at American Airlines before joining the FAA in early 2022.

Nolen, like Washington, would be the first Black person to serve as the FAA's permanent administrator if confirmed.

Cruz endorsed Nolen during an aviation safety hearing earlier this month, asking Democrats on the panel: "Do you think Phil Washington could come anywhere close to acting Administrator Nolen's knowledge? I think the answer is no."

Cruz said in his podcast on Monday that his endorsement of Nolen "was an audible" called in the middle of the hearing.

"I turned back to my staff and said, 'What do you think about Nolen? Would it be crazy for me to suggest right now that they should withdraw Washington and nominate Nolen?'" Cruz said. "And my guys were like 'No, that's fine.'"

Cruz added that a former Biden White House official reached out afterward to say his remarks had caught the administration's attention.

Aviation industry consultant Robert Mann also said Nolen would be an obvious choice.

"We have a very competent acting administrator in Mr. Nolen," said Mann, who works with airlines operators to make their flight operations more efficient. "He's been doing the job and he's been responding to issues."

In contrast, Mann said Washington's lack of knowledge about aviation showed itself during his confirmation hearing this month, where Cruz asked him detailed questions about technical issues such as the 737 MAX's "angle of attack" sensors. While conceding that "I'm not a pilot," Washington contended that his career as an Army officer and his leadership of transit agencies had shown his ability to manage large organizations.

Still, "I don't know why he was proposed, to be perfectly honest," Mann said of Washington. "At the end of the day you have to actually understand something about the business."

On the other hand, Nolen's nomination would not win unanimous support.

Michael Stumo, who helped draft a letter in support of Washington from family members of people killed in the 737 MAX crash in Ethiopia, said Nolen probably disqualified himself from winning their support after telling senators this month that the plane is safe. Nolen was responding to questions from Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) about recent, nonfatal incidents involving Boeing's jet, which returned to service in late 2020.

"I can say categorically that the 737 MAX ... is safe," Nolen said during that hearing, while adding that he "would want to know more" about the incidents Vance was citing.

That was troubling, said Stumo, who lost his daughter Samya in the Ethiopian Airlines crash in March 2019.

"He said the MAX qualified as safe but he didn't know about the [most recent] incidents," Stumo said. "That is ... probably disqualifying in my view."

Groups speculating about potential leaders for the FAA in the past have floated names including C.B. "Sully" Sullenberger, the retired US Airways pilot who safely landed a passenger jet on the water during the January 2009 "Miracle on the Hudson." Sullenberger left his Senate-confirmed role as U.S. ambassador to the International Civil Aviation Organization last July after five months on the job, and didn't give a reason for his departure.

One union coalition that supported Washington's nomination was at a loss Monday on who should get the nod now.

"From my perspective, it's not like we have been asked about potential backups at this point," said Greg Regan, president of the AFL-CIO's Transportation Trades Department. "I think there was the full commitment to try to get him across the finish line. Phil had their full trust and support. I think there's a little bit of urgency here with how they move next."

Burgess Everett contributed to this report.



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Former National Enquirer publisher testifies before Trump grand jury


NEW YORK — Former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker testified Monday before the grand jury examining Donald Trump’s alleged role in paying hush money to a porn star, according to a news report and related photograph.

A POLITICO reporter viewed a photograph of Pecker and his attorney exiting the courthouse Monday afternoon after The New York Times wrote about the testimony.

A spokeswoman for Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Pecker’s attorney, Elkan Abramowitz, also didn’t immediately comment.

Monday was the first time in a week that the grand jury heard evidence in the Trump case. The panel was called off Wednesday and then examined an unrelated matter Thursday. The delay prompted a fiery response from Trump, leading some Democrats to rally around Bragg on Monday morning.

Bragg’s investigation is centered on a $130,000 payment facilitated by Trump’s former fixer, Michael Cohen, and made to the porn star, Stormy Daniels. The adult entertainer alleged she had an affair with Trump and considered selling her story to the National Enquirer, at a time when Pecker was the tabloid’s publisher, according to federal prosecutors. Instead, Cohen paid Daniels directly, a step he told a court he took “in coordination with and at the direction of” Trump.

Trump has denied the affair and any wrongdoing with the payment.

Pecker previously testified before the Manhattan grand jury examining the Trump investigation, according to a person familiar with the matter. It wasn’t clear why he was called back to provide further testimony. Before the publisher, the grand jury heard from Robert Costello, a former legal adviser to an ex-fixer for Trump, Michael Cohen, who is the prosecution’s central witness in the case.

Costello said at a press conference after his testimony that he sought to discredit Cohen while speaking to the grand jury.



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France braces for another day of mayhem and violence

Talks between the government and trade unions remain at a deadlock.

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Finland on course for NATO membership after Hungarian vote

One final hurdle remains: official approval from Turkey’s parliament.

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House Democrat leads rally backing Manhattan DA's Trump probe


NEW YORK — A House Democrat stepped into the fray around Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s investigation of Donald Trump, holding a rally in support of the progressive prosecutor Monday after his Republican counterparts demanded information about the probe.

“We are here to say let the process continue and no one is above the law, not even a president of the United States,” said Rep. Adriano Espaillat, who represents Upper Manhattan, at a Harlem rally attended by a dozen other local Democratic leaders.

On Saturday Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), James Comer (R-Ky.) and Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) — the chairs of the Judiciary, Oversight and Administration Committees, respectively — sent a letter to Bragg setting a March 31 deadline for documents from his office about possible federal funding or involvement in his work. They also want Bragg to testify in private. The asks are voluntary since the Republican leaders have not issued a subpoena.

Bragg fired back on Twitter Saturday saying it was “not appropriate for Congress to interfere with pending local investigations.”

The exchange came after Trump predicted “potential death & destruction” if the grand jury hearing evidence about his alleged role in a 2016 hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels votes to indict the former president.

“What Trump is doing is actually a threat to the DA and his family. We are here to say these threats are unacceptable and the case must move forward,” said City Council Member Julie Menin, a Manhattan Democrat.

The grand jury, which meets in secret as required by the law, was expected to reconvene this week after a two-day break in the proceedings. The panel typically sits Monday, Wednesday and Thursday and could vote on an indictment as early as this week.

On Friday an envelope containing white powder was sent to Bragg’s lower Manhattan office. It was deemed non-hazardous.



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As crisis engulfs Israel, Biden’s words go only so far


The political crisis engulfing Israel is exposing the limits of American influence on the country — limits that are, to some degree, self-imposed.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s effort to overhaul Israel’s judiciary is the most direct cause of the recent chaos — prompting huge protests and strikes, with even Israeli military members speaking out in opposition.

Netanyahu’s goal: make changes to Israel’s judicial system that would, among other things, let Israeli lawmakers override court rulings — a move that critics fear will badly damage Israeli democracy.

Over the weekend, Netanyahu fired his defense minister for opposing the overhaul — sparking more protests and exposing cracks in the ruling coalition. On Monday, as more coalition members reportedly threatened to quit, Netanyahu announced he was putting the overhaul on hold and would seek a compromise measure.



Throughout the crisis, whose roots stretch back months, President Joe Biden and his aides tried to strike a balance with Israel: Keeping appeals and criticisms largely private, but going public on occasion with carefully worded statements designed to pressure Netanyahu to back off the overhaul plan. But those U.S. appeals didn’t seem to do the trick. Internal Israeli pressure has clearly been far more powerful.

The big question now is how much influence the United States still has with Netanyahu and what level of pressure it’s willing to apply when Netanyahu or his party take future destabilizing actions.

So the crisis is all about the judicial reform?

No. Netanyahu returned to power late last year— after the latest in a series of seemingly endless elections — by aligning himself with extreme right-wing figures, some of whom have racist, misogynist and homophobic views.

This has alarmed more moderate and left-leaning Israelis, whose political power is limited. Many worry that the far-right coalition now in charge of the country — some members of whom have extreme religious views — will undermine secular Israelis’ rights, not to mention those of Israeli Arabs, Palestinians and others.

To top it off, many of his critics suspect that the main reason Netanyahu is pushing the judicial overhaul and other initiatives desired by his far-right partners is so that they will ultimately protect him from prosecution in Israeli courts, where he’s facing corruption charges.

How are Biden and his aides reacting to all this?

Very, very cautiously.

For the most part, Biden administration officials have tried to keep their conversations with the Israelis private, and, even then, they tend to say things in carefully worded ways.

The administration has — often in a coded manner — warned Netanyahu that he needs to protect Israeli democracy. The administration also has stressed its support for LGBTQ rights and Palestinian rights in ways designed to signal to Netanyahu that he should rein in his extremist allies.

Administration officials have said they will hold Netanyahu responsible for his coalition, pointing out that he’s insisted he’s the one in charge. And top administration officials have refused to meet with far-right figures surrounding the Israeli prime minister.

But the Biden administration also insists that its commitment to Israel’s security is ironclad. The president has long said he will not impose conditions on the billions of dollars in security aid the U.S. provides to Israel, and there’s no sign he’s changed his mind about that.

While the administration insists that it does have some leverage over Israel — such as assisting it against attacks at the United Nations or helping it pursue deeper cooperation with some Arab states — the reality is that it has largely stuck to rhetoric as its main weapon.

Is it working?

Not really.

Just days ago, Biden spoke to Netanyahu, and the White House readout of the call emphasized that Biden wanted Israel to find a compromise on the judicial reform issue because it’s critical to safeguarding Israeli democracy.

“Democratic societies are strengthened by genuine checks and balances, and that fundamental changes should be pursued with the broadest possible base of popular support,” the readout said.

It was an unusually frank call, the readout suggested, especially given the usual niceties involved in the relationship. But in the days after, there was no sign that Netanyahu had taken Biden’s warnings to heart.

The Israeli leader proceeded ahead with the judicial reform plans. It wasn’t until Netanyahu’s coalition started to crack amid popular pressure that he began to rethink his stance this past weekend.

What factors must Biden consider when dealing with Israel?

First, there’s the pure national security aspect. Israel is a critical partner to the United States in the Middle East, especially when it comes to intelligence sharing about the various players in the region.

This is especially important in regard to Iran, a longtime U.S. and Israeli adversary with a nuclear program.

Second, there’s just a lot of history. The United States has always been a stalwart partner to Israel ever since it was created as a homeland for the Jewish people fleeing persecution in Europe and beyond.

Biden has been, for decades, a champion of Israel. He genuinely loves the country and the many successes it has achieved in its short existence.

Biden has often touted his friendship with Netanyahu, even when the latter has tested that friendship.

Israel also is a rare democracy in the Middle East. Many U.S. officials also want to keep good ties with Israel in part to resolve the lingering Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which has left the Palestinian people in misery for decades.

Third, there’s the question of how things could play out in America’s 2024 presidential campaign.

For many years, there was broad bipartisan support for Israel in the United States, and any president who criticized the country risked being attacked by members of his own party. This is changing, somewhat.

Generally speaking, Democrats are still strong supporters of Israel. But there has been growing worry in recent years among Democrats about Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians.

Netanyahu’s wholehearted embrace of former President Donald Trump angered many Democrats. His new government’s make-up also has alarmed even some of his strongest Democratic backers, suggesting Biden could feel pressure from his party to be tougher on Israel going forward.

Is the calculus different for the GOP?

Pro-Israel organizations are strong and politically active, and they command significant support from evangelical Christians in particular — an important Republican base.

In a sign of how strident the GOP support is for Israel, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell recently told Axios that Washington shouldn’t weigh in on the judicial overhaul plan, calling it an Israel internal matter.

Republicans eyeing the White House already are trying to prove their pro-Israel bona fides.

Some, such as former Trump administration Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, won’t say if they support a future state for Palestinians, for instance. Nikki Haley, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, has touted her many efforts to protect Israel at the world body.

But there are signs that Netanyahu’s overhaul plan goes too far for even some of Israel’s biggest supporters on the American right. Former Trump administration ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, is among those who’ve reportedly voiced concerns.

How much does the U.S. really care about the Middle East right now, given threats from Russia and China?

It still cares a lot.

The United States has military bases in the Middle East, and the region remains a key source of oil and gas for the world — one even more critical given the damage Russia’s war in Ukraine has done to energy markets.

Without question, the Biden administration believes the top threat to America’s long-term global power is China. But China — as well as Russia — is trying to gain influence in the Middle East amid perceptions that the United States is backing away from the region. That means the competition with those two countries will include the arena of the Middle East.

For the Biden administration, one key goal is to push for a more peaceful Middle East, with the idea that a more stable Middle East means the United States can focus more on the grander challenges posed by China and Russia.



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Monday 27 March 2023

ISIS Isn’t Dead, It’s Just Detained.


When ISIS’s territorial “state” was dealt its final defeat four years ago in eastern Syria, the world breathed a sigh of relief. For years, ISIS had terrified the globe. Using slick propaganda, the terror group had recruited as many as 50,000 foreign fighters from dozens of countries. ISIS’s declaration of an Islamic “caliphate” saw it transform into a worldwide movement, with activities on every continent. And when the U.S. led an international coalition to confront it, ISIS triggered a global campaign of retaliatory terrorist attacks that transformed international security.

In the years since its territorial defeat, a small force of 900 U.S. troops has remained in northeastern Syria to degrade ISIS’s insurgency, alongside a local partner, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who occupy a third of the country, counter to the agenda of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. To a large extent, that counterterrorism mission is succeeding.

On a recent visit to the area alongside U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Gen. Erik Kurilla, I saw first-hand the vital and sustainable role being played by U.S. troops, whose support to SDF operations is the glue holding together the only meaningful counter to ISIS’s desire to resurge once again. From running an extensive aerial surveillance network, to coordinating the SDF’s more than 100,000 fighters and facilitating civilian aid, stabilization and tribal engagement, these troops are indispensable. U.S. helicopters also medevac injured SDF personnel, as we saw after ISIS militants ambushed an SDF patrol, critically injuring one SDF fighter.

While the U.S. troop presence exists explicitly and only to combat ISIS, during my visit the constant threat of attack by Iranian-sponsored militias was palpable. Forces dedicated to coordinating U.S. drones flying over Syrian skies and to radar and air defense systems deployed in U.S. bases in Syria were laser-focused on the array of Iranian-produced drones known to have been used for kamikaze-style attacks on U.S. forces in the region. As CENTCOM has made clear, countering ISIS and preventing its resurgence is the second most vital U.S. priority in the Middle East, but the first is facing down the threats posed by a hostile Iran.



While an ISIS attack during our visit underlined the terror group’s persistent threat, the reason for such a heightened awareness of Iranian threats was revealed on March 23, when an Iranian suicide drone hit a U.S. base in eastern Syria, killing a contractor and wounding five U.S. servicemembers. Such tit-for-tat incidents are far from new — this was the 79th Iranian attack on U.S. forces in Syria since January 2021 — but the deadly nature of the attack was extremely rare. The U.S. has not suffered a combat fatality in Syria for years. Retaliatory U.S. airstrikes on Iran-linked positions in the area followed just hours later, but it is unclear if they would be sufficient to deter further attacks. That Russia has markedly escalated its flight of fighter jets into U.S.-controlled airspace in northeastern Syria has complicated things further. One such ‘overflight’ occurred during our visit to the area — no coincidence given the presence of CENTCOM’s leadership.

Yet despite the challenges from malign states, the fight against ISIS remains the utmost priority. Since late 2019, three successive ISIS leaders have been killed on Syrian soil, along with dozens of senior and mid-level commanders. In terms of counterterrorism, we are unquestionably degrading ISIS. However, the terror group has one invaluable advantage on its side: the remnants of its “state” in the former of its former residents. In the final days of the fateful battle against ISIS’s last stand at al-Baghuz in March 2019, streams of ISIS fighters and family members were captured. Today, more than 10,000 battle-hardened ISIS militants languish in 26 makeshift SDF prisons and a further 54,000 women and children reside in secured camps.


This detainee crisis represents a humanitarian and security challenge the likes of which we have never faced before. On the ground, the scale is staggering, as is the profound security threats associated with it. “When you speak with residents, when you speak with the SDF securing the sites, when you speak with camp administration officials, you get a real sense of looming danger,” CENTCOM’s Kurilla told me after Blackhawk helicopters took us to the largest of the camps, al-Hol. “We have to have a real sense of urgency to address this problem through repatriation, rehabilitation, and reintegration,” Kurilla told me. “This requires all arms of the U.S. government; it requires the international community.”

The scale of this detainee crisis is unprecedented. Twenty-one years ago, 780 terrorism suspects were rendered to Guantanamo Bay, a self-contained detention facility on an isolated island thousands of miles from active conflict. Twenty-one years later, 31 remain there, despite concerted efforts by successive U.S. administrations to prosecute and repatriate prisoners. The ISIS fighters alone, numbering 10,000, would fill 13 Guantanamos at its original capacity. In northeast Syria, by contrast, we are dealing with a total of nearly 65,000 people from at least 55 countries, held in makeshift prisons and vast camps, amid ongoing civil conflict and an ISIS insurgency.

It is hard to understate the mammoth challenge associated with anything close to a resolution here. ISIS literally has an army in prisons — 10,000 in Syria and 20,000 next door in Iraq. At least 5,000 of ISIS’s most dangerous and committed fighters currently reside in Ghweiran prison in Hasakah, northeastern Syria. The facility, a former school, is administered by our SDF partners and its defenses paid for by the U.S. and coalition allies. During a visit to the prison, I heard of a just-foiled ISIS prison break coordinated by an Iraqi leader inside and operatives outside.

Prison breaks are part of ISIS’s DNA. They were the key to its dramatic resurgence in 2014. In January 2022, ISIS launched a massive attack on Ghweiran prison, ramming several vehicles rigged with explosives into exterior walls, then driving pick-up trucks full of weapons into the facility to arm prisoners. The assault had been coordinated by inmates and ISIS operatives on the outside. Some local prison guards had almost certainly been coerced into facilitating the initial attack. Ultimately, the incident triggered a 10-day battle that drew in U.S. and U.K. special forces and left more than 500 people dead. British government money has since reinforced the prison’s defenses, but ISIS is clearly not deterred.

But ISIS is not only interested in freeing its fighters — it is also determined to free the 50,000 women and children held in al-Hol camp, 40 kilometers away. Multiple major ISIS plots to attack al-Hol have been foiled in recent months. As we learned, SDF guards there have begun receiving ISIS threats by cell phone and now only enter the camp in U.S.-provided Bearcat armored vehicles. During a brief foray into the camp, we were flanked by multiple teams of U.S. special forces, American-operated Bradley fighting vehicles stood at every corner and U.S. drones and helicopters were in the sky above us.



The presence of more than 25,000 children in al-Hol is a humanitarian travesty and a ticking time bomb. In September, the SDF completed a weeks-long clearing operation in al-Hol that captured 300 ISIS operatives who had been living among the women and children along with weapons and explosives. A rocket-propelled grenade attack within the camp killed two SDF personnel, but equally concerning was the discovery of several “ISIS schools,” along with photo and video footage showing young children being taught ISIS’s ideology and support for violence and terrorism. The evidence we were shown from within the camp was similar to that created by ISIS’s propaganda outfits at the height of the terror group’s power. For CENTCOM, this is ISIS’s “next generation,” to complement its “army in detention.”


The only resolution to this detainee crisis is returning the men, women and children to their countries of origin for prosecution or rehabilitation and reintegration. Logistically, the challenge here is daunting. The vast majority of the nearly 50,000 women and children are from Iraq and Syria. To date, Iraq has engaged in an impressive returns process, but even so, it will take at least six years to complete. Of the roughly 12,000 Syrians, almost all are from regime-controlled areas, which precludes returns altogether. Following a concerted U.S. diplomatic push, repatriation of third country nationals achieved considerable momentum in 2022, but even so, only 1 percent were actually transferred home. It can take as long as a year to complete a single repatriation case and when it comes to the 10,000 male prisoners, there is no international willingness to repatriate at all.

If the situation remains the same, it will take at least 30 years to return the women and children alone. But U.S. troops, key to containing ISIS and securing the facilities, will almost certainly not be in Syria anywhere near that long due to slowly building pressures at home to disengage from conflicts in the region. Whenever the troops do leave, all hell will break loose. The Syrian regime has an unspeakable track record when it comes to ISIS, having all-but-ignored its rise since 2011. Even earlier, from 2003 to 2010, Assad’s regime actively supported ISIS’s insurgency against U.S. and allied forces in Iraq, providing training, intelligence and financial support, as well as facilitating the arrival of more than 90 percent of its suicide bombers across Syrian territory.

Failing to deal with this detainee crisis is a dream scenario for ISIS. This is a priority for the U.S., with the State Department now convening an inter-agency working group dedicated to the issue. But this is not nearly enough. A major international diplomatic mobilization is required to elevate the response to this challenge to the level required.

When ISIS marched into Mosul and across Iraq and Syria in 2014, the biggest international coalition in modern history took form to intervene. A similar effort is required now. If not, a catastrophic ISIS resurgence is just a matter of time.




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