google-site-verification: google6508e39c6ec03602.html April 2023 ~ The news

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Sunday, 30 April 2023

National Security Leaks as Political Rorschach Tests


When Jack Teixeira was arrested for publishing top secret information onto a Discord channel devoted to gaming, it seemed like an open-and-shut case of a vainglorious loudmouth receiving his comeuppance.

According to the Washington Post’s account of the leaker prior to his arrest, “there was no indication that he was acting in what he thought was the public interest by exposing official secrets. The classified documents were intended only to benefit his online family.” When the Discord group’s attention wandered from his postings, “he got angry.” One group member told the Post explicitly, “I would definitely not call him a whistleblower.”

Some on the right had a different reaction. On Fox News, then-host Tucker Carlson blasted the arrest of Teixeira, stating, “He revealed the crimes, therefore he’s the criminal. That’s how Washington works. Telling the truth is the only real sin.” Carlson also asserted, baselessly, that U.S. soldiers were currently fighting Russian soldiers, so perhaps his claims should be taken with a grain of salt. Still, he was not the only defender of Teixeira’s actions. Far-right British activist Raheem Kassan asked why he was being prosecuted when whistleblower Alex Vindman was walking around free. And hard-line GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene really went there, positing that the Massachusetts Air Guardsman was arrested because “Jake Teixeira is white, male, christian, and anti-war. That makes him an enemy to the Biden regime.”

That anyone tried to paint Teixeira as a whistleblower hints at the degree to which national security leaks can become political Rorschach tests — inevitably interpreted through one’s partisan or ideological lens.

A decade ago, it was Republicans who blasted Edward Snowden while some on the left defended his actions. After those leaks, GOP House Armed Services Committee Chairman Buck McKeon said, “Mr. Snowden was no whistleblower, but a spy and a traitor [who] put his personal politics and ambitions over the safety and well-being of his fellow citizens.” Democratic members of Congress, including Rep. John Conyers and Sen. Chris Coons, pushed back, arguing that Snowden’s revelations triggered a useful debate about the tradeoffs between liberty and security.

Still, even in today’s polarized atmosphere, partisanship alone does not explain the reaction to every leak. National security is one area where the ideological extremes of both parties often meet, with the far-left and far-right valorizing leakers because they view them as victims of a system they do not trust. A further complication is that by their very nature, whistleblowers are often contrarian, cantankerous and self-righteous — and that automatically makes them polarizing figures.

The Teixeira episode underscores the limits of seeing partisanship as the key factor in explaining the political response to leaks: Most Republicans were quick to distance themselves from Greene’s comments, including some who wholeheartedly share Greene’s skepticism about the war in Ukraine. And while some Democrats defended Snowden, many others signed on to bipartisan letters condemning the national security leaks. The Obama administration did its darnedest to prosecute Snowden.

The partisan politics of national security whistleblowing are also muddied by the fact that whatever is being leaked often implicates both parties. In the case of Snowden, for example, the NSA programs and surveillance he disclosed had their origins in the Bush administration but continued under Barack Obama. Chelsea Manning’s document dump covered multiple administrations. Daniel Ellsberg leaked the Pentagon Papers when Richard Nixon was president but the documents he provided to the New York Times and Washington Post implicated the Kennedy and Johnson administration’s policies in Vietnam.

In some cases, whistleblowers reveal conduct that has nothing to do with the party in power and everything to do with the flawed standard operating procedures of the national security bureaucracies — in Teixeira’s case, how in the hell he got a security clearance in the first place. In such circumstances, the opposition party always has an incentive to attack the current administration for lax national security safeguards, making it more difficult for those politicians to simultaneously express sympathy with the intent of the leaker.

Another reason the partisan framing does not explain everything is that there are legitimate debates within each party about the power vested in the national security establishment. Progressives on the left and libertarians on the right fundamentally disagree on the state’s role in regulating the market. When it comes to national security, however, they are in lockstep opposition to an expansive national security state. That holds with particular force in the case of whistleblowers. Ellsberg and Snowden acted as they did because they believed the government was either lying to the American people or engaging in activities that stretched federal authority beyond what was publicly known. Progressives and libertarians also share a belief in the overclassification of information. Even though Teixeira revealed sources and methods in his postings, it may be awkward for Republicans to criticize his actions while defending Donald Trump’s post-presidential possession of classified documents.

Perhaps the most important complicating factor is that when one individual is responsible for the leaks, that person defines the narrative — for good or ill. Whistleblowers can be a difficult group to like; many Americans will find it wrong when someone with top secret information turns on the organization that trusted them. As one scholarly analysis of the phenomenon acknowledged, “Even when the actions of whistleblowers are subjectively motivated by moral concerns, they may be perceived by others as ill-considered and as having immoral (or at least problematic) side effects.”

Furthermore, an awful lot of the people who leak wind up being something less than the heroic martyr that some imagine them to be. Mark Felt, the high-ranking FBI official dubbed “Deep Throat” during Watergate, did not leak information to Bob Woodward out of the goodness of his heart — it was part of a self-serving (and unsuccessful) plan to become the next FBI director. As one biographer put it: “Felt didn’t help the media for the good of the country, he used the media in service of his own ambition.” Edward Snowden, now a Russian citizen, has been mostly silent about that country’s brutal invasion of Ukraine even as he criticized the Biden administration for wanting to regulate cryptocurrencies. Teixeira leaked information to multiple Discord groups to gain attention from others, not for any ideological or policy reason. He also trafficked in racial and antisemitic slurs on those channels.

It is also the case that sometimes the content of the leaks is interpreted differently from what the leaker intended or outside observers expected. Wikileaks’ Cablegate was supposed to be an exposé of perfidious U.S. foreign policy behavior; mostly it revealed that U.S. diplomats were saying the same things in private that they were saying in public. Similarly, Teixeira’s leaks have publicized diplomatic initiatives and security assessments that the Biden administration wanted kept secret. Contrary to the claims of Carlson and Greene, however, there is little that is new in these leaks about the war in Ukraine.

If there is a pattern, it might be that more conservative leakers act out of a sense of personal ambition and more liberal leakers do so out of a sense of indignation. But the political reaction to any leak is a combination of partisanship, ideology and the inherent fact that not all leakers are selfless whistleblowers.



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Search for Texas man wanted in mass shooting comes up empty


CLEVELAND, Texas — The search for a Texas man who allegedly shot his neighbors after they asked him to stop firing off rounds in his yard stretched into a second day Sunday, with authorities saying the man could be anywhere by now.

Francisco Oropeza, 38, remained at large more than 18 hours after the shooting that left five people dead, including an 8-year-old boy. San Jacinto County Sheriff Greg Capers said Saturday evening that authorities had widened the search to as far as 20 miles from the scene of the shooting.

Investigators found clothes and a phone while combing a rural area that includes dense layers of forest, but tracking dogs lost the scent, Capers said.

Oropeza likely is still carrying the AR-15 he allegedly used in the shootings, the sheriff said.

“He could be anywhere now,” Capers said.

The attack happened near the town of Cleveland, north of Houston, on a street where some residents say neighbors often unwind by firing off guns.

Capers said the victims were between the ages of 8 and 31 years old and that all were believed to be from Honduras. All were shot “from the neck up,” he said.

The attack was the latest act of gun violence in what has been a record pace of mass shootings in the U.S. so far this year, some of which have also involved semiautomatic rifles.

The mass killings have played out in a variety of places — a Nashville school, a Kentucky bank, a Southern California dance hall, and now a rural Texas neighborhood inside a single-story home.

Capers said there were 10 people in the house — some of whom had just moved there earlier in the week — but that that no one else was injured. He said two of the victims were found in a bedroom laying over two children in an apparent attempt to shield them.

A total of three children found covered in blood in the home were taken to a hospital but found to be uninjured, Capers said.

FBI spokesperson Christina Garza said investigators do not believe everyone at the home were members of a single family. The victims were identified as Sonia Argentina Guzman, 25; Diana Velazquez Alvarado, 21; Julisa Molina Rivera, 31; Jose Jonathan Casarez, 18; and Daniel Enrique Laso, 8.

The confrontation followed the neighbors walking up to the fence and asking the suspect to stop shooting rounds, Capers said. The suspect responded by telling them that it was his property, Capers said, and one person in the house got a video of the suspect walking up to the front door with the rifle.

The shooting took place on a rural pothole-riddled street where single-story homes sit on wide 1-acre lots and are surrounded by a thick canopy of trees. A horse could be seen behind the victim’s home, while in the front yard of Oropeza’s house a dog and chickens wandered.

Rene Arevalo Sr., who lives a few houses down, said he heard gunshots around midnight but didn’t think anything of it.

“It’s a normal thing people do around here, especially on Fridays after work,” Arevalo said. “They get home and start drinking in their backyards and shooting out there.”

Capers said his deputies had been to Oropeza’s home at least once before and spoken with him about “shooting his gun in the yard.” It was not clear whether any action was taken at the time. At a news conference Saturday evening, the sheriff said firing a gun on your own property can be illegal, but he did not say whether Oropeza had previously broken the law.

Capers said the new arrivals in the home had moved from Houston earlier in the week, but he said he did not know whether they were planning to stay there.

Across the U.S. since Jan. 1, there have been at least 18 shootings that left four or more people dead, according to a database maintained by The Associated Press and USA Today, in partnership with Northeastern University. The violence is sparked by a range of motives: murder-suicides and domestic violence; gang retaliation; school shootings; and workplace vendettas.

Texas has confronted multiple mass shootings in recent years, including last year’s attack at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde; a racist attack at an El Paso Walmart in 2019; and a gunman opening fire at a church in the tiny town of Sutherland Springs in 2017.

Republican leaders in Texas have continually rejected calls for new firearm restrictions, including this year over the protests of several families whose children were killed in Uvalde.

A few months ago, Arevalo said Oropeza threatened to kill his dog after it got loose in the neighborhood and chased the pit bull in his truck.

“I tell my wife all the time, ‘Stay away from the neighbors. Don’t argue with them. You never know how they’re going to react,’” Arevalo said. “I tell her that because Texas is a state where you don’t know who has a gun and who is going to react that way.”



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Western governments evacuate more citizens from Sudan as situation deteriorates

Fighting continues between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

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Top global regulator warns of ‘massive adjustment’ for financial system

Klaas Knot is more worried about risks stashed at “nonbanks” — where authorities have less visibility on hidden losses.

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Roy Wood Jr.'s best jokes at the WHCD


The “Daily Show” correspondent Roy Wood Jr., seemingly spared no-one in his roasts during Saturday’s White House Correspondents’ Dinner. The comedian poked fun at President Joe Biden, Republicans, Democrats and the media, including the recently dethroned cable news hosts at CNN and Fox News.

Here are some of Wood’s best lines from the night:

— Real quick, Mr. President, I think you left some of your classified documents up here. ... I’ll put them in a safe place, he don’t know where to keep them.

— I'm well aware that not everybody in this room knows who I am. So let's just address the elephant in the room. I know it is. Half of this room think I'm Kenan Thompson. The other half think I’m Louis Armstrong. President Biden think I’m the daddy on "Family Matters.”



— I'd like to stop right now, and congratulate tonight's top scholarship recipient: Arizona State senior George Santos. Oh yeah, George couldn't be here tonight. He's auditioning for "RuPaul’s Drag Race." We say good luck to you, George.

— Paramount Global right now is considering offers from Byron Allen and Tyler Perry to purchase BET. That's how bad it is out there. These companies are so broke they've giving BET back to Black people. Which by the way, is not what we meant when we said Black people wanted reparations. We meant cash, you can give it to us in [the] Harriet Tubman twenties.

— Tucker Carlson is out of the job. Some people celebrating. But to Tucker’s staff I want you to know that I know what you're feeling. I work at “The Daily Show” so I, too, have been blindsided by the sudden departure of the host of a fake news program.

— Fox claimed Dominion conspired with the Democrats to rig the election. The Democrats should be flattered that they thought that y'all was smart enough to rig an election.

— Yes, Don Lemon was a diva and he said a couple of women are raggedy in the face. But that's a promotion at Fox News.

— Ron, everybody know how to do politics. This is America. We don't pass laws. You make a promise to voters. And then you don't do it. That's what the great leaders in this room understand.

— Ask any Republican [to] try to explain CRT, they sound like a Democrat trying to explain the charges against Trump.

— You are trying to erase Black people and a lot of Black people wouldn't mind some of that erasure as long as that Black person is Clarence Thomas.

— When the retirement age went up two years to 64 [in France] they rioted because they didn't want to work till 64. Meanwhile in America, we have an 80-year-old man begging us for four more years of work.

— At the end of the day, [being] the vice president, the only thing you got to do is just be better than Dick Cheney. … They made a documentary about Dick Cheney. Now, I don't know much about the job of vice president, but I do know if they can make a documentary about your time as vice president, you vice president-ed incorrectly.



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'Journalism is not a crime': Biden salutes press, stresses freedoms at WHCD


President Joe Biden on Saturday used the traditionally lighthearted White House Correspondents’ Dinner to drive home the importance of the free press amid threats to democracy at home and abroad.

Biden opened his speech by recognizing the family of Evan Gershkovich, the Wall Street Journal reporter who was arrested in Russia in March and falsely accused of espionage.

“Evan went to Russia to shed light on the darkness that you escaped from years ago,” Biden said, praising Gershkovich’s “absolute courage.”

“Tonight our message is this: journalism is not a crime,” Biden told the applauding crowd.

The president also acknowledged dinner attendee and WNBA star Brittney Griner, who was detained in Russia for nearly 10 months, and Debra Tice, the mother of Austin Tice, a journalist who has been held captive in Syria for more than 10 years.

“Evan and Austin should be released immediately, along with every American held hostage or wrongfully detained abroad,” Biden urged. He also acknowledged Paul Whelan, the former U.S. marine currently detained in Russia, and promised Whelan’s family that neither he nor his administration would quit until Whelan was freed.

Biden eventually cut the somber atmosphere with a joke about his own age. “I believe in the First Amendment. Not just because my good friend Jimmy Madison wrote it,” the 80-year-old said to laughter from the crowd.

Biden’s speech included some of his favorite lines — “don't compare me to the almighty, compare me to the alternative,” — peppered with digs at Republicans and the media, including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former Fox host Tucker Carlson, former CNN host Don Lemon, and Twitter CEO Elon Musk.

Biden also had some barbs for Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

“You all keep recording my approval rating is 42%. I think you don't know this. Kevin McCarthy called me and asked, 'Joe, what the hell is your secret?'” Biden said.

The White House Correspondents’ Dinner was back to its glitzy, elbow-rubbing glory this year for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic began. The annual roast was canceled in 2020 and 2021, and the virus continued to cast a shadow over last year’s event, after the Gridiron Club dinner weeks earlier turned out to be a superspreader event.

But on Saturday, not even the rainy weather could deter the crowd – some 2,600 journalists, politicians and celebrities filed into the ballroom at the Washington Hilton for the celebration, keynoted by comedian and “Daily Show” correspondent Roy Wood, Jr. The dinner got off to a rowdy start, as White House Correspondents’ Association President Tamara Keith tried to rein in attendees’ attention. “Don't make me shout out, 'Decorum!” Keith said in an effort to quiet the room for her opening remarks.

The awards and speech portion of the night opened with a video of actor and former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who spoke of the importance of the relationship between politicians and the press.

“Tonight's event of course sends a powerful message that you don't see politicians schmoozing and drinking with the press in Beijing or in Moscow or places like that — no, not at all,” Schwarzenegger said in the pre-taped recording, which included a cameo from actor Danny DeVito. “So even though you have asked questions that have annoyed the hell out of me, I remind myself always that you actually do the people’s work. You are the ally of the people, so never ever stop shining a light on the truth and informing the public.”

Keith emphasized that message in her remarks, noting that this was the first time in many years that both the president and the vice president attended the event, after former President Donald Trump declined to join during his time in office.

“Their presence is a statement and endorsement of the importance of a free and independent press — even if they don't always like the questions we ask, or the way we ask them,” Keith said.

Wood later wrapped up the evening's theme in his inimitable style: "Tonight is all about you all, journalists, the defenders of free speech. People who show truth to the world, from different mediums, from television, print, radio, whatever China let us see on TikTok."



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In Photos: 2023 White House Correspondents’ Dinner arrivals

Julia Fox attends the 2023 White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at Washington Hilton on April 29, 2023, in Washington. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images
Chuck Schumer attends the 2023 White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images
Roy Wood Jr. attends the 2023 White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images
Karen Travers attends the 2023 White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images
Kelly Ripa and Marc Consuelous attend the 2023 White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images
Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson attends the 2023 White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images
Ke Huy Quan and Echo Quan attend the 2023 White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images
Angelica Ross attends the 2023 White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images
Brittney Griner and Cherelle Griner attend the 2023 White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images
Fran Drescher attends the 2023 White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images
Al Sharpton attends the 2023 White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images
Winnie Harlow attends the 2023 White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images
Wolf Blitzer attends the 2023 White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images
Oksana Markarova attends the 2023 White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. | Getty Images
Gisele Barreto Fetterman and John Fetterman attend the 2023 White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images
Ego Nwodim attends the 2023 White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images
Jen Psaki attends the 2023 White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images
Chrissy Teigen and John Legend attend the 2023 White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images
Tanya Mayorkas and Alejandro Mayorkas attend the 2023 White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images
Andrea Mitchell attends the 2023 White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images


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FDIC, Wall Street scramble to pull together sale of First Republic Bank


Federal regulators are rushing to seal a deal to sell troubled lender First Republic to a larger bank, with JPMorgan Chase as a top contender, two people involved in the talks said on Saturday.

The FDIC wants to complete an agreement by Sunday evening that would likely include the government taking on some of First Republic’s troubled assets or offering other guarantees that would make buying the bank less risky for would-be suitors.

Formal bids for First Republic — which has seen heavy deposit outflows and suffered massive share price declines in recent weeks — are due to the FDIC by the middle of the day on Sunday, according to the people, who requested anonymity to provide details of the discussions.

Federal regulators are hoping to put an end to turmoil in the banking industry following the stunning collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last month. First Republic's problems largely stemmed from the panic that engulfed those two banks amid a run on deposits.

First Republic, until this year one of the more envied banking franchises in America with over $200 billion in assets at the end of the first quarter, would be the third-largest bank failure in U.S. history after SVB and Washington Mutual. First Republic issued a grim earnings report last week that showed just how fast deposits were racing away, replaced by more expensive loans, an unsustainable formula that helped spark the latest stock price collapse.

While JPMorgan and PNC Financial expressed interest in a First Republic deal on Thursday, the bidding process was formally opened up on Friday, which could clear the way for another large bank to also make the winning offer, one person familiar with the process said.

It also remains possible that the FDIC could decide that the bids they receive are insufficient and no deal could emerge. That would mean First Republic opening for business again on Monday and trying to survive at least until regulators agree to a subsequent bid.

First Republic, a California-based institution with a strong track record and highly desirable customer base, has been foundering and bleeding deposits since the failure of SVB and Signature. Like those two, First Republic has a large number of customers with deposits that exceed the FDIC-guaranteed limit of $250,000 in their accounts.



When the government rescued SVB and Signature, regulators hoped that their decision to backstop all deposits at both banks would send a message to depositors that they shouldn’t worry about the money in their bank accounts.

That worked to a degree but it did not stop rapid deposit outflows from First Republic or end a share price rout that saw the bank’s stock slide another 40 percent on Friday to close at just $3.51, a nearly 98 percent drop from this time last year. The consensus among investors is that First Republic will continue to founder if not rescued by a combined public and private sector deal by the time markets open on Monday. 

A group of big banks including JPMorgan and PNC tried to shore up First Republic last month by injecting $30 billion in deposits. It did not work.

JPMorgan, PNC and the FDIC all declined to comment on the talks.



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U.S. evacuates citizens from Sudan conflict


A U.S. government convoy carrying hundreds of American citizens arrived at Sudan’s port Saturday, according to the State Department.

The evacuation is part of a larger effort to relocate American citizens in the East African nation amid escalating violence between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces that has left over 500 dead. It comes less than one week after a special forces operation airlifted 70 U.S. diplomats and embassy employees out of Sudan.

When pressed Friday to confirm reports about the convoy, State Department officials declined to comment, citing operational security. Al-Monitor first reported on the convoy plan.

Eligible U.S. citizens and other evacuees would be assisted to travel from Port Sudan to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the State Department said, emphasizing that the U.S. government has been in contact with all American nationals in Sudan who wished to leave.

“We messaged every U.S. citizen in Sudan who communicated with us during the crisis and provided specific instructions about joining this convoy to those who were interested in departing via the land route,” the statement read, before reiterating a warning that U.S. citizens should not travel to Sudan.

A Pentagon statement said the Defense Department "approved a request for assistance from the Department of State to support the safe departure of U.S. citizens and their immediate family members."

"The Department of Defense deployed U.S. intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets to support air and land evacuation routes, which Americans are using, and we are moving naval assets within the region to provide any necessary support along the coast," the statement added.

Fighting first erupted in Khartoum on April 15 as a power struggle between the Sudanese military, led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, led by Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, came to a head in their attempt to jointly steer the government. Fighting resumed Saturday despite a ceasefire intended to allow foreign governments to evacuate their citizens, which was set to expire on Sunday night.

As of Friday, an estimated 40,000 refugees fled Khartoum for various refugee camps, according to the UNHCR.

Nahal Toosi contributed to this report.



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Saturday, 29 April 2023

DeSantis underwhelms Britain's business chiefs

UK captains of industry lambast "low-wattage" presidential hopeful.

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Biden makes first in-person appeal to donors for '24 campaign


President Joe Biden lambasted "MAGA Republicans" and emphasized abortion rights in a pitch to more than 100 supporters and elected officials Friday, as part of the first in-person donor confab of his 2024 reelection campaign.

The reception, while not a fundraiser, was the first of a two-day meeting that offered Democratic Party officials the opportunity to sell donors on Biden’s reelection campaign strategy and begin an ambitious fundraising push aimed at topping the $1 billion the campaign raised last election cycle.

It also marked a new effort to bring untapped donors into the fold. Barring appearances at parties like state dinners or the occasional fundraiser for down-ballot races, donors have consistently said they were not being prioritized or the White House had failed to sufficiently bring them into the fold.

“Here’s the bottom line. It’s very simple: We need you. Our democracy needs you because this is about our freedoms,” Biden told the jubilant crowd.

But it’s unclear whether that energy has translated into material fundraising success — particularly when it comes to small-dollar donations. The campaign has not provided any clues about its early haul, as it did immediately after the launch in 2019. Back then, Biden faced a number of Democratic rivals, including many who released in real-time how much they had been raising for the campaign.

There’s a sensitivity in the campaign that the early number could feed a negative narrative, according to a donor involved in the campaign. Some major donors have not yet been asked to give, according to that person.

Biden did not become a fundraising juggernaut until he entered the general election and faced off against Donald Trump. While he bested the Democratic field over the first 24 hours, he struggled to keep pace with rivals like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who built large war chests on the strength of donors who signed up to regularly give small amounts. Biden’s standing greatly improved later in the primary process as rivals withdrew from the race amid poor showings and he consolidated their supporters.

A campaign official maintained that the 2024 fundraising operation was well-positioned this cycle, and the Democratic National Committee had brought in $276 million for the midterms, a record for a midterm cycle. The campaign had already made a two-week, seven-figure ad buy that was running in six battleground states.

The Friday night reception drew more than 100 Democratic donors and officials to the lavish Salamander hotel in D.C.’s Southwest Waterfront. Among the elected officials were Govs. Gavin Newsom of California, Wes Moore of Maryland, and Phil Murphy of New Jersey. The first Gen-Z congressman, 26-year-old Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.), also attended, as did several of Biden’s newly announced campaign co-chairs, including Jeffrey Katzenberg, a major Democratic fundraiser and the only co-chair who is not an elected official.

As he left the White House on the gloomy Friday, a number of the members of Biden’s inner circle joined him en route, including counselor to the president, Steve Ricchetti, and senior advisor to the president, Mike Donilon.

Biden declined to mention former President Donald Trump by name in his remarks to the crowd. Instead, he lambasted “MAGA Republicans … trying to take us backwards.”

Attendees interviewed by POLITICO emphasized the energy in the room. Former Republican Rep. Jim Greenwood said the crowd gave Biden a standing ovation.

“I think everybody in the room was watching to see if he made a single gaffe,” he said. “He didn’t.”

Dick Harpootlian, a South Carolina state senator who bundled for Biden in 2020, said he thought most attendees seemed to believe that Trump would be the Republican nominee.

“He’s a motivating factor,” he said. “The two sort of high-profile people are him and DeSantis, and that’s Trump and Trump-lite.”

Christopher Cadelago contributed to this report.



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DeSantis allies go to war with an unlikely foe: Nikki Haley


For months, the presidential primary looked like the Ron DeSantis-Donald Trump show.

So it came as a surprise to some top Republicans this week when the well-funded super PAC supporting DeSantis turned its fire on Nikki Haley, a candidate still registering in the low-single digits in national polls.

Never Back Down, the pro-DeSantis group, is now running an ad online attacking Haley, has polled Twitter users on a new nickname for her, and accused her in a tweet of “trying really hard to audition” to be Trump’s vice presidential pick.

The move suggested a shifting dynamic in the contest: With DeSantis falling further behind Trump in national and early-state surveys, his allied super PAC is trying to ensure that the primary remains a two-way race and that other candidates vying to be the Trump alternative do not gain traction.

“This is the DeSantis team acknowledging that he is closer to the field than he is to President Trump,” said Justin Clark, a Republican strategist who was Trump’s 2020 deputy campaign manager but who isn’t involved in a 2024 presidential campaign.


The pro-DeSantis PAC’s anti-Haley offensive came after the former South Carolina governor took a shot at DeSantis during an interview on Fox News for his heavy-handed approach toward Disney and suggested the theme park relocate several hours north to her home state. Shortly after, Never Back Down began running a digital ad featuring clips of Disney employees touting the company’s promotion of pro-LGBTQ themes, and concluding with a silhouette image of Haley holding hands with Mickey Mouse.

It wasn’t a one-off, but part of a coordinated offensive. The group announced the spot would be included in a “six-figure” digital ad buy in South Carolina, a key early primary state. And it put out several tweets attacking Haley, including one saying she is “embracing woke corporations” and another with a poll asking if she should be nicknamed “Mickey Haley” or “Nikki Mouse.”

“It's a bad strategy to defend Woke Disney when they decided to defend the sexualization of children,” Erin Perrine, a spokesperson for Never Back Down, said in a statement, when asked about the group’s recent attacks on Haley. ”It's mind-boggling [that] any Republican would side with a massive corporation that has an unprecedented level of self-governance over protecting children and families, but I guess 2023 is a strange time.”

DeSantis’ allies may have no other choice than to go on the attack. While Trump has been the consistent polling leader, it’s DeSantis who has been taking fire from a number of would-be rivals, including former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, businessperson Vivek Ramaswamy and Haley.



A pro-Haley super PAC, SFA Fund Inc., (an abbreviation for “Stand For America”) regularly sends out news roundups to reporters highlighting unflattering coverage about DeSantis, something the group doesn’t do for Trump or Haley’s other primary rivals.

“Ron DeSantis' No Good, Very Bad Week,” read the subject of one such email. “DeSantis’ Disastrous Journey to the Swamp,” read another.

This week, the group created a video mocking DeSantis’ suggestion that he might open a state prison next to Disney World. And after her Fox interview about DeSantis, Haley joked that South Carolina conservatives are “not sanctimonious” about their values — a nod to Trump’s “DeSanctimonious” nickname for the Florida governor.

DeSantis is comfortably in second place in most surveys, trailing Trump but well ahead of the other Republicans in the field. But in recent weeks, he has lost ground, with Trump picking up endorsements from several Republican Congress members in Florida and with some major donors expressing reservations about the Florida governor. Two recent polls of South Carolina GOP voters showed Trump far ahead of the pack and Haley only narrowly behind DeSantis. A survey conducted earlier this month by National Public Affairs, a Republican firm co-founded by Clark, found DeSantis at 21 percent, with Haley at 19 percent. A Winthrop University poll taken several weeks earlier showed similar results, with DeSantis at 20 percent and Haley at 18 percent.

“The fact that Ron DeSantis is attacking her is not surprising,” said Mark Harris, a Republican consultant who is running the pro-Haley super PAC. “It’s a clear indication that he’s losing ground.”

Nachama Soloveichik, a spokesperson for Haley, also took a swipe at DeSantis, contending that as governor Haley would have “avoided wasting taxpayer dollars on tit for tat battles.”

The presence of Haley and others in the race presents a challenge for DeSantis, who must take steps to consolidate the support of voters who are looking for someone other than Trump. Any traction that rival candidates gain could detract from DeSantis’ effort to overtake the former president.


The dynamic bears some similarities to the 2016 primary, when Trump prevailed over a splintered field of Republican rivals. The non-Trump candidates spent months relentlessly attacking one another while largely leaving Trump untouched. It ultimately paved the way for Trump to win the nomination.

Because DeSantis is not yet an announced candidate, it has fallen on Never Back Down to take the lead in promoting him and attacking his prospective rivals. The organization — which has also aired ads attacking Trump — is expected to be among the most well-funded entities in the primary. It has announced that it has already raised $30 million, about two-thirds of which came from Nevada hotel executive Robert Bigelow.

Some Republicans, however, have privately questioned the decision to go after Haley, arguing that in taking on a lower-polling rival, DeSantis appeared weak.

“Attacking candidates with no votes does not have the upside of gaining votes,” said Curt Anderson, a veteran Republican strategist who is not involved in the primary.



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Hochul brings back an Albany tradition: The late, late budget


ALBANY, N.Y. — First came her futile attempt to win approval of a controversial judicial nominee. Now, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is leading a drawn out state budget process that’s irritated labor leaders, business interests and her fellow Democrats — and ushered in a new era of dysfunction in Albany.

Hochul on Thursday announced a conceptual agreement after a nearly monthlong delay that frustrated lawmakers, who felt little pressure to cave to her ultimatums, and deepened the divide between the moderate governor and the progressive-leaning Legislature.

Earlier in the day, even as the final pieces began to fall into place, Democrats were resigned to tempered optimism about a quick conclusion.

"Don't underestimate the ability for the governor to fuck this all up,” Brooklyn Assemblymember Bobby Carroll, a Democrat, said after briefly exiting closed-door discussions with colleagues.

The Democratic governor in her first year since being elected will emerge with a few wins, including agreements to change controversial bail laws, expand the number of charter schools in New York City and tie future minimum wage increases to inflation, pushing wages above $15 an hour starting next year.

“We're building a path of shared prosperity for all New Yorkers, and I'm very proud of this budget,” she told reporters Thursday evening.

But the victories will be undercut by the losses, especially the collapse of her sprawling housing plan that was a linchpin of her agenda. Hochul, by many accounts, is struggling to navigate the treacherous Albany landscape where her party has large legislative majorities but progressives and moderates are at constant war.

The delay in getting an on-time budget — long the symbol of dysfunction in Albany, where budgets were tardy 20 years in a row — left many lawmakers and special interests in dismay.

The housing plan Hochul traveled the state to sell was wholesale rejected. Hochul said she’d rather scrap it for now than implement the Legislature’s counterproposals, which she did not believe would create “meaningful change.”

She brushed off the defeat.

“I will never shy away from a fight. You're not always going to win,” she said Thursday. “But this state requires a leader who is not afraid to get knocked down once in a while because I always get back up. And I get back up even more committed to take on the challenges.”



Still, three longtime legislative aides independently described Hochul’s negotiating style as odd and inefficient, at least by the standards of Albany, where lawmaking often involves complex, multi-way agreements that tie together several unrelated issues. Hochul showed a reluctance to reshape her original ideas for compromise and a seeming lack of interest in tackling more than one issue at a time, said the aides, who were granted anonymity to discuss the private meetings.

First, she pressed legislative leaders for a deal on bail law changes, refusing to discuss other issues until she got an agreement. The maneuver scored her a victory, but delayed negotiations on some issues and blocked progress on others. Even items widely regarded as settled between the three parties often stayed “on the table” rather than closed, muddling final agreements, according to a person familiar with the negotiations.

On housing, though, several parts of Hochul’s plan had supporters in the Legislature, and Democratic lawmakers, saying there was room for a compromise that could have been beneficial for both messaging and to get progress on the major issue in a state where affordability has driven out more residents than any place in the country.

If municipalities didn’t agree to build new housing through incentives and state aid, for example, the state could in future years toughen the laws through mandates that Hochul insisted upon, said Sen. Peter Harckham (D-Westchester County).

“I thought you start big and then you pull back as you negotiate,” he said. “So a bit of a lost opportunity.”

Hochul now walks away with no housing deal or movement toward Democrats’ shared pitch that they can make New York more affordable in the short term, whether that is through trying to lower costs or install new tenant protections. She insisted that, without mandating new housing, municipalities wouldn’t do it — as has been the case in other states. She knew it would be a challenge, she told reporters.

“It's not going to be easy. I didn't come here to do easy,” she said Thursday. “So there will be knockdowns. I'm just getting started. I've just begun my term as governor.”



Sen. Julia Salazar (D-Brooklyn) was in support of Hochul’s housing targets, even a component that would have allowed the state to override local zoning laws — a nonstarter in some New York City suburbs. She said exclusionary zoning in many parts of the state has resulted in de facto segregation that needs to be addressed.

But Salazar, who is the lead sponsor of another bill to provide greater tenant protections, said too much was left undone when Hochul dropped talks. “It's a shame, and it doesn't have to be this way. And more importantly, we can't afford to wait. The housing crisis isn't going away,” she added.

A few of the deals that emerged during the process were quickly criticized by some Democrats, with progressives decrying the minimum wage increase as insufficient to keep New York City competitive with other large cities, and a push for more charter schools as an affront to the public schools and the teachers unions she promised to support.

“Our relationship with the governor, I hope it will get back to what it was,” Andy Pallotta, the president of the New York State United Teachers union, said in an interview with POLITICO.

Some point to Hochul’s reliance on outside consultants to draft her initiatives — including some advisers based outside of Albany and the state of New York.

“There's just this disconnect. It's a mystery,” said one Democratic senator who was granted anonymity to discuss the governor and budget negotiations. “There is a lot of goodwill toward the governor, and there's just this hope that she and her team get on firmer footing.”

The housing plan demonstrated another theme — difficulty lining up coalitions of support prior to pushing a major issue, the same problem at the heart of Hochul’s failure to win confirmation in January of her chief judge pick. Lawmakers and special interest groups said they were miffed at the complexity of Hochul’s plan that landed on their desks in January and worried that unions, local leaders and builders weren’t already in conversations about it.

“It was doomed not just because of the substance of it, but the failure to involve all the stakeholders beforehand and trying to negotiate it with literally hundreds of other things in a 60-day period,” Long Island Assemblymember Fred Thiele, a Democrat, said of the housing plan.

Public pushes for most of her budget proposals came in the form of advertisements — backed primarily by former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg and a few others. A large coalition of civil rights and health advocates lined up to promote Hochul’s proposal to ban menthol cigarettes. But the ban is unlikely to be included in the final budget.

Hochul will be able to promote bail changes as one of her big wins. She said early on that she would have no qualms about holding up the budget in the name of her public safety initiatives.

“I said I'd make our state safer, more affordable, more livable for New Yorkers of today and tomorrow,” she said. “Now that we're reaching the end of this process, I'm confident that's exactly what this budget delivers.”

But the bail law tweaks won’t be enough to appease Republicans or other critics, and some criminal justice experts say the change is unlikely to have the positive effects she says it will.

“Her hope is that she can hang everything, even though it's window dressing, on some minimal discretion back to judges, which is what 49 other states already do,” Sen. James Tedisco (R-Schenectady County) said. “ I think that's where she'll plant the flag and say now we have victory, but it won't be a victory.”

Marie J. French contributed to this report.



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Iowa lawmakers applaud EPA for higher ethanol gas waiver



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New York set to ban gas furnaces, stoves in new buildings


ALBANY, N.Y. — New York will require new buildings to be zero-emissions starting in 2026 and make a state authority a major player in developing renewables as part of this year's budget, Gov. Kathy Hochul announced late Thursday.

The state’s budget will ban fossil fuel combustion in most new buildings under seven stories starting in 2026, with larger buildings covered in 2029. That means no propane heating and no gas furnaces or stoves in most new construction.

New York would be the first state to take this step through legislative action; California and Washington have done so through building codes.

“We’re going to be the first state in the nation to advance zero-emissions new homes and buildings,” Hochul said Thursday, announcing a conceptual deal on the budget that was due March 31.

The measure will help the state achieve its ambitious mandate to slash emissions by 40 percent from 1990 levels by 2030 and 85 percent by 2050 and was recommended in a plan approved in December by state agency heads and outside experts. Exemptions will be included for commercial kitchens, emergency generators and hospitals.


But some key details have not yet been finalized. Hochul also indicated she expects the deal to include rebates to consumers as part of a cap-and-trade initiative for emissions, but a detailed agreement hasn’t been reached on that issue.

There is no measure that eventually bans the replacement of gas furnaces in existing homes included in the budget, which Hochul had proposed and is recommended in the state’s climate plan. Lawmakers rejected that early on in negotiations. And none of the budget proposals included any measure targeting gas stoves in existing buildings.

Details of the agreement will be laid out in state budget bills that have not yet been printed. A potentially major caveat on grid reliability pushed by Assembly Democrats and a major gas utility also hasn’t been finalized, leading environmental advocates to moderate their enthusiasm until they see the final wording.

The Assembly initially proposed a requirement for the state’s Public Service Commission to review the ability of the electric system to support new buildings, although it was not clear how that would function because the requirements for reliable service already enshrined in state law.

“As the governor and legislative leadership continue to hammer out the details, they need to ensure that this is as strong as possible and there aren't any loopholes,” said Liz Moran, New York policy advocate for Earthjustice. “The technology is ready, and we absolutely have to be doing this to meet our climate law mandates.”

Advocates had pushed for an earlier implementation of the restrictions and pushed back on a later start for commercial buildings. Hochul had initially proposed a split at four stories for the timeline, but environmental groups and Senate Democrats backed seven stories to align with New York City’s zero-emission building law that passed in 2021.

The later date — starting Dec. 31, 2028 — is also expected to apply for commercial buildings and those over 100,000 square feet, Hochul spokesperson Katy Zielinski said.

A measure to end the “100 foot rule” subsidies for new gas hookups, as proposed by Senate Democrats, is not in the budget, Zielinski said. That means utilities will still pass on some costs of hooking up new customers, who they are legally required to serve, to other gas ratepayers.

The state budget will include a provision to allow for rebates to New York residents under a cap-and-trade program that is expected to be rolled out in 2025 and will raise gas prices at the pump and home heating fuel costs. Some additional details about how the funds could be spent may also be included but details are not finalized, according to the governor’s office.

“What we're doing is setting up a mechanism to be able to allow for rebates that we generate with a cap and invest program,” Hochul said. “We think that is the important first step, because we couldn't do it under existing law.”

Some environmental advocates had pressed for the Legislature to play more of a role in the parameters of that program, which is expected to be rolled out through regulations by the state Department of Environmental Conservation. It will help the state achieve the emissions reductions required under the 2019 climate law, but Hochul has raised concerns about the costs of the program and sought to rewrite the law to reduce the emissions captured by the measure.

“We’re focusing on aggressive climate protections but we have to make sure that they're affordable for New Yorkers or it won't work,” she said.

Hochul also said that a measure to allow the New York Power Authority to build new renewables was included in the deal. The measure will include labor standards, allow but not require NYPA to work with the private sector on renewable projects and includes the “renewable energy access and community help” program for NYPA to provide bill credits to low-income residents to reduce their utility costs, according to the governor’s office.

Assemblymember Ken Zebrowski (D-Rockland County) said the details of the NYPA measure are among the open issues: “Hopefully there is a full agreement soon and everything can go to print, but those details aren’t all worked out yet."

Hochul also announced the Environmental Protection Fund would be kept at $400 million; $500 million in additional funding would go to water infrastructure.

Lawmakers have also agreed to Hochul’s proposal of $200 million for utility bill relief and $200 million for a NYSERDA program to weatherize and electrify the homes of some low-income New Yorkers.



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Government report shows steep decline in FBI’s ‘backdoor searches’ on Americans


The Biden administration has a new argument in its uphill battle to sell Congress on renewing a controversial electronic surveillance statute: it can rein in abuses of the program itself.

The number of times FBI personnel sought information on Americans within a repository of data collected under Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act fell more than 95 percent in 2022 from 2021, according to a much anticipated transparency report on U.S. spying released Friday.

The decline follows a series of reforms the FBI instituted in the summer of 2021 to curtail searches of the database for information on Americans who correspond with surveilled foreigners.

At the heart of the battle: Section 702 is a powerful spying program that allows the intelligence community to snoop on the emails and other digital communications of foreigners located abroad. But the FBI does not need a warrant to search communications that have already been collected under the statute — and its growing use, and misuse, of those powers to snoop on Americans in recent years have made lawmakers reticent about reupping the program as is.

Showing restraint: The substantial decline documented within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s 2023 Annual Statistical Transparency Report buttresses the administration’s claims that it has managed to rein in FBI searches on Americans, a senior FBI official told reporters ahead of the report’s release.

The report “aptly illustrates how built-in oversight that Congress put in the statute works to … repair trust and transparency,” said the official, who provided the briefing to reporters on condition of anonymity.

The data: The FBI sifted through — or “queried” in intelligence community parlance — the 702 database for details on Americans roughly 120,000 times last year after conducting nearly 3 million such searches in 2021 and 850,000 thousand searches in 2020, the report says.

The bureau conducted those 120,000 searches due to alleged connections to foreign spies and security threats.

The bureau also has the ability to scour through the database for details on purely domestic crimes — another hot-button issue that has surfaced amid the reauthorization debate. But the FBI made only 16 such searches last year and 14 the year prior, according to the report.

Zooming out: The new report is the first to disclose the impact of a series of fixes the intelligence community implemented in 2021 after a secret intelligence court overseeing the program determined in rulings from 2021 and 2020 that the bureau committed “apparent widespread violations of the querying standard.”

The reforms amounted to a series of internal measures to discourage bureau personnel from improperly probing the database, like requiring agents to affirmatively opt-in to 702 searches and setting an upper limit on the number of terms that could be used at a time.

Falling on deaf ears: But the new data doesn't appear to be getting traction with lawmakers who believe the spying program should not be reauthorized absent new safeguards for the federal law enforcement agency.

"While there was a sharp decline in U.S. person queries from December 2021 to November 2022, it is incumbent upon Congress, not the Executive Branch, to codify reforms to FISA Section 702," Reps. Mike Turner (R-Oh.) and Darin LaHood (R-Ill.) said in a statement upon the report's release.

“Today’s report highlights the urgent need for reforms to government surveillance programs in order to protect the rights of law-abiding Americans," added Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), a longtime privacy advocate, in a statement.



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Friday, 28 April 2023

Think Manchin has coal connections? Meet his rival.


West Virginia voters may swap one coal boss for an even bigger one.

Republican Gov. Jim Justice jumped into the race Thursday to challenge Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, setting up a potential collision between two politicians with deep connections to the state’s coal industry.

Justice, who was included on Forbes' billionaires list as recently as 2020, has profited from family businesses in the fossil fuel industry across Appalachia. Recent polling shows he is the strongest candidate vying for the Republican nomination to challenge Manchin.

His entrance catapults the race into one of the highest-profile political battles of 2024, with the possibility of showcasing both men’s personal ties to an energy industry that President Joe Biden and other world leaders have promised to largely replace with renewable power.

Manchin, perhaps the most vulnerable Senate Democrat, confounded members of his party by stalling major legislation aimed at reducing fossil fuel use. But by ultimately voting for the Inflation Reduction Act, which pours hundreds of billions of dollars into clean energy, he risks losing support among voters with ties to coal.

Both men have earned millions from their families’ fossil fuel businesses.

Over the years, Justice’s family coal businesses have collected millions of dollars in state and federal fines for pollution and public safety violations. The businesses have a long history of ignoring those fines or paying them after years of protracted legal efforts.

Manchin’s political position has benefited his business interests, which include a family company that trucks discarded coal to a high-emitting power plant near his hometown. The facility is the only plant in West Virginia that still uses waste coal to generate electricity.

Accusations around conflicts of interest have followed Justice, 72, and Manchin, 75, through much of their careers. But that has not slowed their political rise in West Virginia, said Rob Cornelius, the former chair of the Wood County Republican Executive Committee and a critic of Justice, whom he described as “Teflon as hell.”

“We expect our leaders to be a little dirty, I guess is the nice way of putting it,” Cornelius said. “No one here cares about what I would call government and business corruption, and that’s probably an indictment of our voters.”

A spokesperson for Justice did not respond to requests for comment.

Manchin has said he will not make a decision about his political future until the end of the year. That could include running for reelection, launching an independent bid for president or retiring. Manchin has been increasingly critical of the Biden administration and his fellow Democrats in recent months, particularly over energy issues.

“Senator Manchin continues to consider the best way he can serve his state and country," Sam Runyon, a Manchin spokesperson, said in a statement. "But make no mistake, he will win whatever race he enters.”

West Virginia remains almost entirely reliant on coal for its power, even as other states move toward cheaper renewables and natural gas. The state gets 90 percent of its power from coal, compared with about 20 percent nationally (Greenwire, Jan. 26). In recent months, Justice has fought to keep the state’s largest coal-fired power plant from closing — a move that could cost ratepayers more than $30 million in additional monthly costs.

Justice’s financial disclosures show that his family’s sprawling business empire extends to more than a hundred businesses, including in energy, hospitality, health care, resorts and timber. Justice’s family owns dozens of coal-related businesses based in West Virginia, Virginia and Alabama and elsewhere, his financial disclosures show.

Those companies, many of which operate mines, have faced millions of dollars in fines for air pollution and unsafe working conditions. They have missed numerous deadlines to pay those fines after being sued by the U.S. attorney’s office and the Mine Safety and Health Administration.

Justice has also faced liabilities related to land reclamation on the surface mines owned by his companies. At one time, the Virginia Department of Mines, Minerals and Energy estimated that the companies had about $200 million in such liabilities.

Recently, the Bluestone Coke facility in Alabama, which is owned by Justice’s family, had to pay a fine of almost $1 million for releasing an excessive amount of toxic air pollution that affected a Black neighborhood for years, a ProPublica investigation revealed. The Birmingham facility repeatedly ignored public health concerns, resulting in the largest fine being proposed in the history of the Jefferson County Board of Health.

Justice’s family is considering a sale of Bluestone, The Wall Street Journal reported last month.

In 2009, Justice bought the 6,500-acre Greenbrier luxury resort in White Sulphur Springs, and then built a casino underneath it. The resort was home to a secret congressional bunker that has since been decommissioned. It is also the site of his planned remarks Thursday evening in which he is expected to officially announce his candidacy.

The personal ties that Justice and Manchin have to the coal industry may raise questions in such a high-profile race, but that is “not new information for people in West Virginia,” said Conrad Lucas, a former chair of the West Virginia Republican Party.

He said voters have looked at those entanglements and repeatedly elected both men.

Justice, despite his wealth, has cultivated the image of someone who is approachable to the average West Virginian, Lucas said, “despite him being a figure who owns the Greenbrier.”

“He has an ability to connect with voters that you wouldn’t think an incredibly wealthy person would, but voters have found him incredibly relatable,” Lucas said.

Justice is one of the most popular governors in the country. A Morning Consult poll conducted in January found that Justice was the fifth-most-liked governor, with a 64 percent approval rating.

Justice leads Manchin 52 percent to 42 percent among likely voters, according to a poll from the Senate Leadership Fund, the super political action committee aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). The only other declared candidate in the race, Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), trails Manchin by 15 percentage points, the poll showed.

West Virginia is among the reddest states in the country. Former President Donald Trump, who could once again be at the top of the ticket, won the state by almost 40 percentage points in 2020. The Senate race, and especially the Republican primary, are widely expected to be the most expensive in state history. A poll released earlier this month by National Public Affairs showed Justice outpacing Mooney by 31 points.

Mooney “looks forward to a robust debate of the issues important to all West Virginians including Justice’s record,” his campaign manager, John Findlay, said in a statement before the governor entered the race.

If he wins, Justice would arrive in Washington not as a power broker, as Manchin has been in the closely divided Senate, but as a backbench Republican. His personal wealth and potential for raising campaign contributions could elevate his standing within the Republican Party, but he wouldn’t be the decisive vote on major legislation.

But there are similarities between Justice and Manchin that go beyond making money on coal. Manchin’s close friend and former chief of staff, Larry Puccio, has worked for both men’s campaigns.

At the federal level, Puccio has leveraged his friendship with Manchin to receive lucrative lobbying contracts, as POLITICO’s E&E News has reported. In Charleston, Puccio works as a lobbyist for multiple businesses owned by Justice, including the Greenbrier and Bluestone. Puccio has also worked as chair of Justice’s transition team — as he did for Manchin.

Justice’s extensive business holdings won’t necessarily make him stand out in Congress, said Craig Holman, who lobbies on ethics and campaign finance issues for Public Citizen, the progressive consumer rights group founded by Ralph Nader.

“Lawmakers here in Congress do have very strong conflicts of interest and business interests, and they’re not expected to recuse themselves from votes that affect those interests,” he said. “And it is a conflict of interest, an obvious one, and it’s rather prevalent throughout Congress and not really subject to regulation.”



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